When is the UK employment data and how could it affect GBP/USD?
The United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending December is scheduled to be published today at 07:00 GMT.
According to estimates, the ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 5.1%, the highest level seen since quarter-ending January 2024. This would be the third straight time when the UK jobless rate is seen at 5.1%. Claimant Count Change is expected to have increased by 22.8K in January from 17.9K in December.
Investors will pay close attention to the UK labor market data to get fresh cues on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook.
In the employment report, investors will also focus on Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses, a key measure of wage growth, which is expected to have risen at an annualized rate of 4.2%, slower than 4.5% in the three months ending in November. Average Earnings Including Bonuses is also estimated to have grown moderately. The wage growth measure is seen as lower at 4.6% against the previous release of 4.7%.
Signs of slowing wage growth and weak employment demand would prompt expectations of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in the near term, at times when policymakers are confident that price pressures would return to the 2% target in the second quarter this year.
How could UK employment data affect the EUR/USD
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GBP/USD trades 0.16% lower to near 1.3610 at the press time. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slips to 1.3631 and caps rebounds as price holds below the gauge.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 (below the midline) underscores waning momentum.
Broadly, the pair demonstrates a sharp volatility contraction amid a Symmetrical Triangle formation. The upside remains capped near the downward-sloping border at 1.3675, while the downside remains supported near the advancing border at 1.3600.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)
The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Feb 17, 2026 07:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 5.1%
Previous: 5.1%
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish.
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