NBH set to hold at 6.50% – BBH

The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is widely expected to keep the base rate unchanged at 6.50%, BBH FX analysts report.

Real yelds and surplus support HUF

"National Bank of Hungary is widely expected to keep rates steady at 6.50% (1:00pm London, 8:00am New York). At the last September 23 meeting, the bank decided unanimously to leave the base rate unchanged at 6.50%, marking the 12th consecutive hold since cutting rates 25bps in September 2024."

"The bank showed no signs of departing from its hold stance warning that 'For the rest of the year, inflation is expected to stay above the central bank tolerance band [3% +/-1%]'. The swaps market price-in 75bps of cuts over the next two years. Regardless, Hungary’s positive real interest rates, loose 2026 fiscal stance, and current account surplus (1.9% of GDP in Q2) favor a firmer HUF."