Ripple Price Forecast: Five XRP spot ETFs face 85% approval odds after SEC leadership shift
- Spot XRP ETFs have 85% approval odds with the new SEC Chair Paul Atkins, according to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas.
- Solana and Litecoin spot ETFs have a slightly higher chance of approval at 90%.
- The SEC has delayed its decision on Franklin Templeton’s spot ETF to June 17.
- XRP’s price faces increasing downward pressure, but uptrend toward $3.00 looks steady as long as it holds above the 4-hour 50-day EMA at $2.21
Ripple (XRP) price hovers at $2.24 at the time of writing on Wednesday as bulls try to prevent the pullback from its April peak of $2.36 from extending further. Bloomberg’s Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) analyst, Eric Balchunas, has released his team’s latest approval odds for all the different spot ETFs, including XRP, following Paul Atkins' official appointment as Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Spot XRP ETFs boast 85% approval probability
According to Balchunas, five spot XRP ETFs, including Grayscale, WisdomTree, 21Shares, Canary, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton, have an 85% chance of approval after the change in leadership at the SEC. Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) spot ETFs have a higher chance of approval at 90%, while Dogecoin (DOGE) and Hedera (HBAR) spot ETFs fall slightly below spot XRP ETFs at 80%. Spot ETF filings related to Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), and Avalanche (AVAX) have a 75% chance of approval.
Meanwhile, the SEC postponed its decision on Tuesday on Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF, subsequently setting a new review deadline on June 17. According to the filing made via the Cboe BZX Exchange, the product would be listed under the name Franklin XRP if approved. The SEC was expected to decide on the application on May 3, but highlighted the need for more time to evaluate the proposed rule change and, at the same time, address regulatory issues raised in the filing.
Interest in altcoin-based ETFs continues to grow, with an increasing number of fund managers seeking approval. According to the latest filings, Nasdaq has filed a 19b-4 form with the SEC on Tuesday to list the 21Shares Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF. This application follows the 21Shares S-1 filing with the SEC on April 10, which seeks to provide investors with indirect exposure to the largest meme coin. Coinbase Custody Trust was picked as the official custodian of the ETF.
At the same time, the SEC has issued a notice postponing its decision on the Bitwise spot DOGE ETF application. The review period is therefore extended to June 15.
XRP price under pressure as downside risks mount
XRP’s price faces increasing sell-side pressure as it slides to test the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.21. A confirmed sell signal in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on the 4-hour chart reinforces the bearish momentum, potentially driving XRP losses toward the confluence support at $2.17, where the 100-day and 200-day EMAs intersect. The MACD line (blue) confirms a sell signal after crossing below the signal line (red).
The downward-sloping Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, currently at 44.99, also signals that bearish momentum is intensifying, with bears likely to dominate in upcoming sessions. Moving towards the oversold region, below 30, would reinforce the bearish grip and hint at a potential reversal if traders buy the dip.
XRP/USD daily chart
Beyond the confluence resistance at $2.17, XRP’s price may find support at $2.00, a level that has been repeatedly tested for both support and resistance in April. A further decline past this point could target the next demand zone at $1.80, with April’s low of $1.61 coming into focus if losses persist.
Crypto ETF FAQs
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.
The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.
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