DXY: Turns bearish across the board – DBS

The Dollar Index (DXY) rose from 104.25 to 104.40 during the Asian session. DXY fell to 104.20 during the European session, but spiked to 104.50 on the better-than-expected US retail sales before drifting back to 104.20 over the rest of the US session, DBS Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee notes.

Data and politics weigh heavy on the USD

“The DXY rose from 104.25 to 104.40 during the Asian session. Investors in external-led Asian economies considered a second Trump presidency damaging for global trade. DXY fell to 104.20 during the European session. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update partially offset the Trump-led pessimism over the world economy.”

“IMF maintained the forecast for world growth at 3.2% for 2024 but upgraded 2025 to 3.3% from the 3.2% projected in April. The IMF projected a recovery in world trade growth to 3.25% in 2024-2025 from quasi stagnation in 2023. For 2024, it downgraded US growth by 10 bps to 2.6%, upgraded Europe by 10 bps to 0.9%, and the UK by 20 bps to 0.7%.”

“DXY spiked to 104.50 on the better-than-expected US retail sales before drifting back to 104.20 over the rest of the US session. At the moment of writing, DXY was trading even lower, at 103.80 (-0.46%). Its fluctuations represented the mix of US political developments and economic data affecting its outlook.”