Gold price breaks higher as US Dollar weakness fuels rally
- Gold cracks key trendline and hits two-week high.
- Dollar weakness supports XAU/USD despite rising Treasury yields.
- Jobless claims, PMIs, Fed decision to shape Gold’s next move.
Gold price (XAU/USD) surges over 1.50% on Wednesday, cracks a key resistance trendline and hits a new two-week high as the Greenback weakens. This Bullion price action comes despite rising tensions and hostilities between the US and Iran. The XAU/USD trades at $4,146 after bouncing off a low of the day (LOD) of $4,076.
XAU/USD jumps as buyers overpower yield and Oil risks
Sentiment remains neutral, though the yellow metal gets a tailwind from the fall of the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the performance of the American currency against six other currencies, is down 0.07% to 101.12.
It's worth noting that tensions in the ongoing Gulf war remain high after US President Donald Trump warned Iran that if they attack more ships, the US would retaliate by attacking bridges or power plants, including those located near the country’s capital.
As the news broke, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude benchmark, rose over 6% to $86.80 per barrel. Surprisingly, the positive correlation between Crude prices and the US Dollar appears to be breaking, as the latter is registering losses.
The US 10-year Treasury yield is up nearly three basis points to 4.654%. Meanwhile, money markets had priced in a 65% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the July 29 meeting, down from 78% a day earlier, according to Prime Terminal data.
Bullion buyers bought the dip, sending XAU’s price past $4,100, opening the door for further upside. However, a larger-scale war against Iran could prompt investors to book profits as high energy prices increase the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal.
The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said that the US is willing to negotiate an end to the conflict but added that Tehran is not serious about talks.
In the US, the economic docket is absent, yet traders are waiting for the release of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 18. Alongside this, traders are also bracing for S&P Flash PMIs and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision next week.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price reclaims $4,100, eyes on 50-day SMA
Gold stages a recovery, breaking a downtrend resistance line and clearing the path to test the $4,200 mark. Momentum as measured in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bullish. Hence, XAU/USD might test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,253 in the near term. Once those levels are cleared, the next resistance is the key psychological levels of $4,300 and $4,400. Once breached, the next stop is the 200-day SMA at $4,496.
For a bearish reversal, Gold must drop below $4,100. Below this area sits the July 21 daily low of $3,999, ahead of the October 28, 2025, low of $3,886.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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