Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD attempts Descending Triangle breakout near $4,070
- Gold price jumps to near $4,067 as oil prices rally hit a pause.
- A lower US Dollar has also supported the Gold price.
- The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week.
Gold price (XAU/USD) is up 1.5% to near $4,067 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal outperforms as the rally in oil prices has stalled, with investors turning confident that negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran towards peace have resumed.
In European trade, the WTI Oil price turns positive to near $82.65 after recovering early losses, but corrected sharply after registering a fresh monthly high at $84.42.
Lower oil prices ease inflation expectations and fears of interest rate hikes from central banks, a scenario that bodes well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
Meanwhile, a slight correction in the US Dollar due to risk-on market sentiment is also supporting the Gold price. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 100.90.
Technically, a lower US Dollar makes the Gold price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
On the US interest rate front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged in the policy meeting next week.
Gold technical analysis
XAU/USD trades higher at around $4,069.52, closer to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at $4,089.31. The precious metal attempts a breakout of the Descending Triangle formation after remaining sideways for almost a month.
Momentum remains subdued with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 45 and signaling a lack of bullish conviction.
On the downside, immediate support is seen around the recent break-price area near $4,043, before the rising trend-line floor at $3,941.63. On the topside, the 20-period EMA at $4,089.31 is the first meaningful barrier that gold must reclaim to ease near-term downside pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery towards the July 6 high around $4,200.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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