AUD/USD gains ground above 0.6500 ahead of Chinese PMI data
- AUD/USD strengthens to around 0.6535 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Trump’s tariff uncertainty and the Fed’s dovish expectations weigh on the US Dollar.
- China’s NBS PMI data for June will be the highlight later on Monday.
The AUD/USD pair gains traction to near 0.6535 during the early Asian session on Monday. The renewed trade concerns due to the White House appear poised to fall short of the sweeping global trade reforms it promised to achieve, weighing on the Greenback. Investors brace for the release of China’s NBS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, which will be released later on Monday.
Top US President Donald Trump advisers said on Friday that agreements with as many as a dozen of the US’s largest trading partners are expected to be completed by the July 9 deadline, per Bloomberg. However, the uncertainty remains, as it was still unclear whether the administration would hold firm on the deadline or extend it to allow more time for talks. This, in turn, drags the US Dollar (USD) lower and acts as a tailwind for the pair.
Markets widely expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to remain on hold at its late July meeting. However, traders raise bet that the US central bank will cut rates more times this year and possibly sooner than previously expected, as some US economic data points to a weakening economy, which contributes to the USD's downside.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish its monthly PMI reports later on Monday. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 49.7 in June from 49.5 in May, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI is projected to remain unchanged at 50.3 in the same report period. Any surprise downside in the Chinese economic data could undermine China-proxy Aussie, as China is a major trading partner for Australia.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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