USD/CAD depreciates to near 1.3560 on higher Crude oil prices, US Manufacturing PMI eyed

• USD/CAD loses ground as WTI oil price improves to near $78.10 during the Asian hours.
• Canadian Dollar might have received support on the upbeat Canadian GDP Annualized.
• CME FedWatch Tool suggests the probability of rate cuts in March is at 3.0%.

USD/CAD breaks the winning streak that began on February 23, which could be attributed to the improved Crude oil prices as Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US). The pair edges lower to near 1.3560 during the Asian session on Friday.

Additionally, upbeat Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized might have provided some support to underpinning the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The data reported a growth of 1.0% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The market expectation was an increase of 0.8% against the previous decline of 0.5%. Moreover, GDP (QoQ) rose by 0.2% against the previous decline of 0.1%.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price is showing improvement, nearing $78.10, as speculation arises regarding the potential extension of supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

Recent data, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index from the United States (US), has led to a postponement in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's (Fed) first-rate cut. This has provided support for the US Dollar (USD). Investors are now awaiting the final US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February, scheduled for release on Friday.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of rate cuts in March is at 3.0%, with expectations decreasing to 23.1% in May and increasing to 52.2% in June. Atlanta Fed President Raphael W. Bostic commented that recent inflation data indicates a challenging path toward achieving the central bank's 2% inflation target. Moreover, Chicago Fed President Austan Dean Goolsbee anticipates the first-rate cuts later this year but refrained from specifying the exact timeline.