EUR/USD is slightly firmer, with spot pricing marked up in a reflection of the generally soft tone of the USD, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
“The Euro (EUR) is unlikely to shine ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy decision. A 25bps rate cut is expected and fully priced in but the outlook for rates that is perhaps more important for the near-term direction of rates. Markets are pricing in 64bps of total easing between now and the end of the year. That is a little quicker than the one cut per quarter pace that the ECB seems to be operating on.”
“Intraday price action suggests a low/ reversal formed around this week’s 1.1015 low (bullish “morning star” pattern on the 6- hour chart). But gains have stalled in the mid-1.10s and short-term trend momentum signals are still reading bearish for the EUR. Gains through 1.1070/75 would give the EUR a little more intraday momentum. Key short-term support is 1.1015 now.”