AUD/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to return to 0.7000 amid firm US Dollar
- AUD/USD falls back from 0.6975 as the US Dollar outperforms.
- Surging US bond Yields lend strength to the US Dollar.
- The Fed signaled in September that there will be one more interest rate hike this year.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gives back its early gains after rising to near 0.6975 and turns marginally lower at around 0.6964 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Aussie pair comes under pressure as the US Dollar trades higher in the wake of surging United States (US) bond yields.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.13% | 0.15% | 0.10% | 0.14% | 0.15% | |
| EUR | -0.13% | -0.07% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.12% | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.10% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | 0.02% | -0.04% | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.02% | 0.05% | |
| CAD | -0.15% | 0.01% | -0.04% | -0.01% | -0.03% | -0.01% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.10% | 0.02% | -0.04% | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.14% | 0.00% | -0.06% | -0.02% | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.05% | |
| CHF | -0.15% | -0.02% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.06% | -0.05% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% higher to near 102.25. The DXY is close to its annual high of 102.54 posted on Monday.
Yields on US-backed securities continue rallying as inflation projections remain elevated despite some correction in oil prices. Several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have warned that high inflation remains a key challenge for them, but have pushed back urgency of further interest rate hikes.
Williams tempers post-hike urgency but keeps Fed firmly hawkish
Fed’s Williams delivers a moderately hawkish message, with a FXS Speechtracker score of 6.4 slightly above the 6.2 historical average, signaling a tone just firmer than the established baseline. The emphasis on “no need for urgency” after the September rate hike, yet conditional guidance for one further hike this year if the economy meets expectations, underscores a data-dependent stance that still prioritizes getting inflation back to 2% and preventing it from becoming entrenched. Projections of inflation at 3.5% this year, a 2% target only reached in 2028, solid GDP growth and stable unemployment, plus AI-related investment pressures, collectively support a narrative of persistent inflation risks that keeps the Dollar underpinned on balance.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 1.43 points to 144.29, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness even as the index remains well above the neutral 100 threshold. Despite the decline, the elevated reading confirms that, in aggregate, Fed communication tracked by the FXS Fed Sentiment Index and FXS Speechtracker still resides in clear hawkish territory, suggesting ongoing support for the Dollar relative to lower-yielding peers.
Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the September policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. In the policy meeting, the Fed hiked policy rates by 25 basis points (bps) to the 3.75%-4.00% and signaed at least one more this year.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6962. The pair holds a bearish near-term bias as price remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7035, suggesting rallies are still capped by this dynamic barrier. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that while downside pressure persists, selling momentum may be losing intensity.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 0.7035, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a more sustainable recovery. On the downside, the absence of nearby measured supports leaves the pair vulnerable to further declines, with traders likely watching for fresh lows below 0.6962 to gauge whether bearish extension is resuming.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Next release: Wed Oct 07, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
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