GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Sellers retain control near September low
- GBP/JPY falls as intervention fears lift the Japanese Yen.
- The cross keeps a bearish bias below key daily moving averages, with 207 and 205 marking the next support areas.
- A sustained recovery above the 210-212 region would be needed to ease the near-term downside pressure.
GBP/JPY trades lower on Tuesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms its major peers, supported by growing concerns that Japanese authorities could intervene in the currency market again. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 208.20, approaching September’s low near 207.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.17% | 0.08% | -0.13% | 0.07% | 0.24% | 0.21% | 0.15% | |
| EUR | -0.17% | -0.09% | -0.27% | -0.13% | 0.07% | 0.03% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.08% | 0.09% | -0.17% | 0.02% | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.13% | 0.27% | 0.17% | 0.18% | 0.34% | 0.31% | 0.25% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.13% | -0.02% | -0.18% | 0.16% | 0.14% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | -0.24% | -0.07% | -0.15% | -0.34% | -0.16% | -0.02% | -0.09% | |
| NZD | -0.21% | -0.03% | -0.13% | -0.31% | -0.14% | 0.02% | -0.06% | |
| CHF | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.06% | -0.25% | -0.08% | 0.09% | 0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that an “undervalued Yen generally poses problems” and that Tokyo “will keep close talks with the US Treasury to ensure stable foreign exchange markets.”
Her remarks follow comments from Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, who said on Monday that markets should take the “very clear” warning from Tokyo and Washington over the Yen’s weakness “at face value.” Mimura added that he was “neither satisfied nor reassured” by recent currency moves.
On the British Pound side, the outlook also remains fragile. Analysts at HSBC warn that “weak UK labour demand and sluggish private sector momentum could weigh on the GBP in the near term.” They note that “markets are already pricing around 100bp of tightening from the Bank of England by July 2027,” but caution that “higher energy prices create a difficult policy mix: inflation risks are rising even as growth momentum faces a challenging outlook.”
HSBC adds that the “run-up to the budget update on 28 October may add further pressure, with elevated gilt yields … and difficult fiscal choices ahead for the new Chancellor.”
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, GBP/JPY maintains a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), leaving price capped by a dense band of overhead supply, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 36 hints at lingering downside pressure without reaching oversold territory, and a mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading suggests only modest recovery attempts within a broader corrective phase.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 210 hurdle, followed by the 212 horizontal level, ahead of the clustered 200-day and 50-day SMAs around 213.13-213.19 and the 100-day SMA near 214. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 207 horizontal floor, with a deeper pullback exposing the 205 level, and only a sustained daily close above the 210-212 band would start to weaken the current bearish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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