EUR/USD: Capped by 200dma before US CPI – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts describe EUR/USD as quiet within its recent range, with spot capped by the 200‑day moving average at 1.1676 ahead of US CPI. They flag support at 1.1560 and resistance at 1.1735, alongside sizeable nearby option expiries. The Euro is also said to be ignoring recent hawkish ECB comments despite rising yields.

Range trading below key resistance

"Yields are taking off again across the curve at the open following the string of hawkish comments by ECB council members. The intention is clearly to ensure inflation expectations stay anchored. Nagel was most hawkish, saying that the central bank will move quickly and decisively if required."

"The euro is ignoring the comments completely, with the 200dma at 1.1676 a bridge too far. Taking a slightly longer view, the likelihood of the ECB raising rates (policy currently neutral) does look more realistic compared to the BoE (policy still restrictive) on the condition that the energy supply and price shock does not transmit to growth."

"Spot quiet inside yesterday’s range as oil steadies, capped by 200dma (1.1676) ahead of US CPI. Support 1.1560, resistance 1.1735."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)