Australian Dollar remains subdued following RBA Meeting Minutes

• Australian Dollar stays weak after RBA Meeting Minutes cite stronger data, persistent inflation, and looser financial conditions.
• RBA policymakers emphasized data reliance, no preset rate path; members warned inflation may stay above target without action.
• The US Dollar may weaken as softer January CPI boosts expectations of potential Fed rate cuts later this year.

AUD/USD edges lower after posting minute gains in the previous session, trading around 0.7070 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair remains subdued following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes, which suggested that February’s rate increase was prompted by stronger-than-anticipated economic data, persistent broad-based inflation, and looser financial conditions.

RBA policymakers highlighted their reliance on incoming data and stressed that there is no predetermined path for rates. Members concurred that without a policy response, inflation would likely remain above target for an extended period.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock had previously indicated that a renewed acceleration in inflation left the central bank with limited room but to tighten policy. Bullock noted that the resilience in consumer spending and business investment had come as a surprise to the board.

Traders will now turn their focus to Australia’s Wage Price Index for Q4 2025, scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by January’s labour market report on Thursday. Both releases are expected to provide additional insight into the RBA’s monetary policy trajectory and the broader health of the economy.

The AUD/USD pair also struggles as the US Dollar (USD) steadies after posting modest gains on Monday. However, the Greenback may face challenges as softer January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut rates later this year. Traders now shift focus to the latest Fed Meeting Minutes, Q4 GDP figures, and the Fed’s preferred core PCE price index for clearer direction on the monetary policy outlook.

January’s US Nonfarm Payrolls recorded the largest increase in over a year, while the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly declined, pointing to a stabilizing labor market. However, sentiment remains cautious as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, has been tracking closer to 3% than its 2% target, with disinflation progress proving uneven since mid-2025.