EUR/USD holds near 1.1540 after ECB stand pat – BBH

EUR/USD is range bound just above this month’s low around 1.1540. Next support is offered at 1.1500. As was widely expected, the ECB left the policy rate unchanged for a third consecutive meeting at 2.00% yesterday. The ECB also suggested the bar for more easing is high, BBH FX analysts report.

Market still prices 50% odds of a 25bps cut within 12 months

"The ECB noted 'the economy has continued to grow despite the challenging global environment', while some of the downside risks to growth have been mitigated. Moreover, ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed again that monetary policy settings remain in a 'good place' and that that there was 'absolute unanimity' to stand pat."

"The swaps market still price in 50% odds of a 25bps cut in the next 12 months. In our view, the ECB is set for an extended pause as Eurozone inflation is stable around the ECB’s 2% target, and PMI data points to an ongoing recovery in economic activity. That should offset some of the drag to EUR/USD from the less dovish Fed easing outlook."

"The Eurozone preliminary October CPI supports the ECB’s on hold stance. Headline CPI matched consensus at 2.1% y/y vs. 2.2% in September, core CPI printed at 2.4% y/y for a second straight month (consensus: 2.3%) and services CPI ticked up 0.2pts to a six-month high at 3.4% y/y."