United States Dollar Index remains stronger as hawkish Fed signals drive rate hike bets
- US Dollar Index rose as Fed officials warn against elevated prices, pushing the October rate hike probability above 70%.
- Markets focus on upcoming employment reports and preferred inflation metrics to gauge policy direction.
- US rejects Iran’s Strait proposal, maintaining Middle East tensions alongside potential pre-election military actions.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, inched lower after opening at a bullish gap, remaining in the positive territory and trading around 101.10 during European hours on Monday.
The Greenback gains strength from hawkish comments made by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Financial market participants are focusing on upcoming economic data, including key US employment reports and the Fed's preferred inflation measures.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack cautioned against allowing the public to normalize elevated prices, while Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson suggested further rate increases might be warranted. Reflecting these shifts, the CME FedWatch Tool now indicates a greater than 70% probability of a rate hike at the October Federal Reserve meeting, up from 57.6% last week and 17.7% a month ago.
US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining that Tehran overplayed its hand, though negotiations are slated to resume this week. Additionally, President Trump signaled confidence that the conflict would conclude soon while keeping open the possibility of further military actions before the midterm elections.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, Dollar Index Spot trades at 101.10. The near-term bias is bullish as price holds above both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a constructive uptrend structure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 68.14 hovers just below overbought territory, hinting at strong but stretched upside momentum, while the elevated FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 147.72 reinforces the supportive backdrop for the dollar.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nine-period EMA at 100.66, with deeper demand expected at the 50-period EMA near 99.97 if a corrective pullback unfolds. As long as Dollar Index Spot remains above these moving average supports, the bulls are likely to defend the recent gains, keeping the focus on further upside extension once any overbought pressures are worked off.
Hammack flags inflation mindset risk as Fed keeps policy bias firmly hawkish
Fed’s Hammack delivered a moderately hawkish message with a FXS Speechtracker score of 7.2/10, slightly softer relative to the historical average of 7.5/10 but still clearly focused on inflation risks. The emphasis on the “biggest risk” being the formation of an inflationary mindset, alongside comments that growth is holding up and the job market is stable, underscores concern that persistent above-target inflation and ongoing demand and capital expenditure pressures could entrench expectations. Hammack’s insistence that policy must remain at a restrictive stance to ensure further disinflation reinforces a bias toward keeping rates elevated for longer rather than signaling imminent easing.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.34 points to 147.72, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness following the speech. However, with the index still well above the neutral 100 mark, the Fed’s overall stance remains firmly in hawkish territory despite the slight softening in tone captured by the FXS Speechtracker.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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