Brent: Supported by US-Iran tensions and deal uncertainty – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team reports that US strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying boats have pushed Brent crude to 98.1 USD/bbl, still below Friday’s 103.5 close. The bank links price action to fragile ceasefire dynamics and evolving US-Iran negotiations, with officials signaling that opening the Strait of Hormuz remains a priority, potentially by force if necessary.

Brent trades near 98 as war risk lingers

"In the US-Iran war, the US conducted strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran overnight, with Centcom citing self-defence."

"The attacks once again put the fragile ceasefire from April under pressure. This follows a weekend in which President Trump signalled the two sides were close to a deal, posting that talks were "proceeding nicely"."

"The strikes are said to be defensive in nature, according to a US spokesperson, and the market seemingly agrees with Brent oil trading around USD 98/bbl, the same level at which it traded most of yesterday after the initial drop."

"Hopes of a US-Iran agreement grew over the weekend after President Trump stated that the "final aspects and details" were being discussed, with the proposed framework unfolding in three stages, according to Reuters: formally ending the war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and opening an extendable 30-day window for broader negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions relief. Efforts to finalise details continued into Monday, with Iran's foreign minister Araghchi travelling to Doha for talks with Qatar's prime minister."

"However, Secretary of State Rubio tempered expectations early on Tuesday, saying a deal could "take a few days", and warned that the Strait of Hormuz would be opened "one way or the other" following overnight US strikes on Iranian mine-laying boats and missile launch sites."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)