Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Billions in ETF inflows push BTC toward decisive breakout

• Bitcoin rises over 2% this week, holding near $80,000 after testing the 50-week SMA at $81,114.
• US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs are on track for a second straight week of billion-dollar inflows, with $1.13 billion recorded through Thursday.
• BTC’s 365-day moving average, currently near $83,000, remains a key resistance level; a decisive break above it could confirm a new bull market, while failure to reclaim it may trigger an early correction.

Bitcoin (BTC) extends gains so far this week, trading near $80,000 after testing the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $81,114 earlier. Strong institutional demand is supporting the rally, with spot BTC Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) on track to record a second consecutive week of billion-dollar inflows. Meanwhile, traders should be cautious as BTC remains below its 365-day moving average near $83,000, a level which could determine the Crypto King’s market regime.

Institutional demand strengthens

Institutional demand for Bitcoin supported this week’s ongoing price surge. SoSoValue data showed spot ETFs are set to record a second straight week of billion-dollar inflows, with $1.13 billion recorded through Thursday. Renewed institutional interest reflects growing demand for BTC and supports its price outlook.

All eyes on Jackson Hole Symposium

Investors await Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, which could provide fresh clues about the bank’s monetary policy and could trigger volatility across risky assets such as BTC. 

“Warsh has deliberately provided less forward guidance since becoming Chair, making the speech relevant less for a predetermined September signal than for how he frames inflation, growth and the broader conduct of monetary policy,” said a QCP Capital analyst. 

If Warsh sounds dovish or signals potential interest rate cuts, it could support BTC, boosting risk appetite, while a hawkish stance could weigh on risk assets.

Macroeconomic data sends mixed signals

US inflation data offered a mixed backdrop for BTC this week. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, held steady at 3.3% YoY in July, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revealed on Wednesday. This figure came in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, the headline PCE Price Index and the core PCE Price Index both rose by 0.2% in July.

Following the data release, the market significantly increased its bets on a September interest rate increase. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting rose to 40% from 36% before the data release.

However, optimism about a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz amid diplomatic efforts involving Iran and Oman could ease oil-driven inflation concerns and reduce the need for further monetary tightening, which could support BTC.

Iran’s Security Chief Mohsen Rezaei said on Friday that Tehran is preparing a list of its conditions to open the Strait of Hormuz in response to a request by mediators, adding that conditions include ending the war in the region, per Reuters.

This easing of conditions lifted mild risk sentiment in the market, with risky assets such as BTC holding around $80,000 on Friday.

BTC’s 365-day moving average remains a key bull-market test

CryptoQuant reported this week that BTC’s apparent spot demand is growing at its fastest monthly pace since late December, and spot and futures demand are expanding together for the first time since early October 2025.

“This is a genuine regime shift, the initial phase of a new bull market… but it needs official confirmation. Valuation, demand and liquidity have all switched into bull mode. The official confirmation is a close above Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, which stands at ~$83,000,” CryptoQuant’s analyst said.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Near 50-week SMA

The Crypto King extends its gains, up over 2% so far this week. BTC trades around $80,000 on Friday after testing the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $81,114 earlier this week.

If BTC closes above the immediate resistance at the 50-week SMA at $81,114 on a weekly basis, it could extend the rally toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $87,599, which roughly coincides with the 100-week SMA at $89,017.

Momentum remains strong and shows signs of optimism. On the weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays firmly above the neutral level of 50, reading 58 on Friday, indicating improving momentum. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) flipped to a bullish crossover in mid-July and remains intact, with rising green histogram bars, supporting a positive outlook.

If BTC corrects, it could extend the decline toward the key psychological level of $70,000.

On the daily chart, BTC maintains a clear bullish bias as price holds well above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) clustered between roughly $68,400 and $72,100. 

Momentum remains strong but increasingly stretched, with the daily RSI hovering in overbought territory above 80 and the MACD indicator firmly positive, suggesting sustained upside pressure but also a rising risk of a corrective pause.

On the topside, the next notable resistance is the psychological and technical barrier at $85,000, where profit-taking could intensify if the rally extends.

On the downside, initial support is found at the rising 50-day EMA at $68,713, reinforced by the 100-day EMA at $68,369 and the 200-day EMA at $72,102, with additional structural floors at $66,500 and $62,300; a break back through this EMA cluster would be needed to suggest a more sustained corrective phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)