Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC falls as surging Oil prices revive inflation concerns
- Bitcoin extends its pullback on Thursday after posting a modest decline the previous day.
- US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $68.99 million in net inflows on Wednesday, marking the seventh consecutive day of positive flows.
- Escalating US-Iran tensions and renewed Houthi threats have lifted Oil prices, fueling inflation concerns and capping BTC's upside.
Bitcoin (BTC) extends its correction, trading below $65,800 on Thursday after a modest decline in the previous day. Despite BTC’s fading strength, US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) continued to attract institutional inflows on Wednesday, marking the seventh consecutive day of gains. However, higher Oil prices, driven by the escalating US-Iran conflict and fresh Houthi threats, have revived inflation concerns, limiting the Crypto King’s upside.
Bitcoin’s rally is being tested by macro pressure
Bitcoin’s price surged earlier this week, inching toward the mid-June high, reaching a daily high of $65,956 on Tuesday. However, this rally has given way with BTC correcting slightly on Wednesday and extending losses on Thursday. This pullback came as tensions again rose in the Middle East.
The US military said it completed the 11th night of strikes on Iran early Wednesday, targeting aircraft hangars and drone storage sites. Iran, on the other hand, continued attacks across the Gulf, targeting US military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan.
Adding to this, Iran said that its forces struck two Oil tankers as they attempted to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis targeted two Saudi Oil tankers in the Red Sea, opening a new front in the war and adding to fears of further disruption of energy flows.
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump warned the US would target Iranian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continued.
These renewed uncertainty has pushed Oil prices sharply higher this week, weighing on risk sentiment and reigniting inflation concerns. The shift has prompted traders to reassess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook. The CME FedWatch Tool chart below shows the probability of a July rate hike rising to 33.7% from around 25% a day earlier and the 12% seen a week ago. This change reflects expectations that the Fed could maintain a more hawkish stance, which weighs on risky assets such as BTC.
Institutional demand provides mild cushion to BTC
Institutional demand has helped slightly cushion the ongoing pullback. SoSoValue data shows that spot BTC ETFs recorded an inflow of $68.99 million on Wednesday, marking the seventh consecutive day of positive flows. If this inflow trend continues through the week, it could help limit further downside despite geopolitical headwinds.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC nears 50-day EMA
Bitcoin price trades at $65,800 on Thursday after a mild decline the previous week. The pair holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65,163, hinting at a mildly constructive near-term tone, but remains capped beneath the 100-day EMA at $68,063 and the longer-term 200-day EMA at $74,348, which keep the broader recovery in check.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 stays above the midline, but points downwards. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, suggesting improving momentum that has yet to overcome the prevailing overhead structure.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day EMA around $68,063, ahead of the 200-day EMA near $74,348, with a more distant horizontal barrier at $84,410 reinforcing the medium-term cap.
On the downside, immediate support comes from the 50-day EMA at $65,163, followed by a horizontal floor around $64,004, where buyers are expected to defend the current corrective phase to avoid a deeper pullback.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
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