EU's gas storage targets are under pressure – Rabobank

Europe continues to face high energy prices due to gas supply concerns, global trade tensions, and low wind levels. Gas prices have averaged €50/MWh so far this year, with German baseload power prices at €122/MWh, the highest since early 2023 and late 2022, respectively, Rabobank's Energy Strategist Florence Schmit notes. 

Europe continues to face high energy prices

"The EU's gas storage targets are under pressure due to unfavorable summer-winter spreads, leading to low storage incentives over the coming months. Current storage levels are already below 50% of capacity and risk being depleted to 30% by the end of March."

"Sanctions on Russia’s energy sector remain the biggest risk premium for European gas, with Russian pipeline gas accounting for 5% of Europe’s supply mix and Russian LNG accounting for 16% of LNG deliveries. China’s 15% tariff on imports of U.S. LNG temporarily frees up supply for Europe but does not alter global supply availability in the short term."

"Wind power generation so far this winter retreated to the lowest since the winter of 2020/2021 but the continued buildout of renewable capacity could help prices end the upward spiral from spring."