WTI Price Forecast: Bulls seem hesitant below $89.50 amid Middle East risks
- WTI regains positive traction during the Asian session, though it lacks bullish conviction.
- Geopolitical risks offer support to the commodity, while easing supply concerns cap gains.
- The technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciation.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and currently trades around the $89.30-$89.35 region, up over 1.0% for the day. The black liquid, however, remains confined within a multi-day-old range, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery from a one-month low, touched on Tuesday.
A further escalation of tensions in the Middle East keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor supporting crude oil prices. The Pentagon instructed US Central Command (CENTCOM) several days ago to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran as US President Donald Trump weighs a specific date for launching strikes. US and Israeli sources said that it could happen before the US midterm elections and possibly the Israeli elections a week earlier.
Meanwhile, Iran has intensified attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, intensifying fighting between the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia acts as a tailwind for the commodity. Adding to this, an incoming storm in the Gulf Coast region threatens key US energy production and refining infrastructure, which contributes to a positive tone around crude oil prices. However, easing supply concerns hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap any meaningful upside for the black liquid.
From a technical perspective, crude oil prices keep a capped tone below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 50, hinting at only modest bullish momentum that is not yet strong enough to overcome nearby overhead supply. This suggests that the 200-period EMA at $89.89 might continue to act as an immediate resistance.
This is followed by a more significant barrier at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $93.95, which would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish bias on the four-hour horizon. On the downside, immediate support aligns with the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $88.82, ahead of a deeper structural floor at the 50.0% retracement near $84.67, with further Fibonacci cushions at $80.52, $74.61 and $67.08 if selling pressure accelerates.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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