Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: BTC and Gold advance after US CPI holds steady in August
- Bitcoin gains momentum and trades near $79,000 as cryptocurrency prices broadly recover.
- Gold climbs and holds above a key moving-average support cluster as bulls eye a short-term $4,400 breakout.
- US CPI remained unchanged at 3.4% in August, matching consensus forecasts while fueling increased speculation around potential rate hikes.
Bitcoin (BTC) is gaining ground and approaching $79,000 on Friday, following the release of the United States (US) inflation data. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization tested support near $76,000 earlier in the day as investors faced macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.
Meanwhile, Gold (XAU) has climbed to $4,367, after opening at $4,317. Despite the rise, the metal is trading in a broad sideways range, with support near $4,300 and resistance around $4,500. An upside breakout could open the door to another attempt above $4,700 and the critical $5,000 level.
US CPI remains unchanged as rate-hike bets surge
US annual inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), remained steady at 3.4% in August, in line with consensus estimates, according to Friday’s data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.4%, an acceleration from July’s 0.1% increase, while core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, advanced 0.3%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. Core CPI eased to 2.4% from July’s 2.5% on a yearly basis.
Despite August’s annual inflation holding steady, market participants are pricing in an 87% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in the 3.75%-4.00% range next Wednesday, up from 72% the previous day, according to the FedWatch tool.
With US inflation still running well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East compounded by the lingering effects of earlier US tariffs, the odds of the Fed pursuing a more hawkish policy stance have increased.
“Today’s CPI keeps a 25-basis-point Fed hike in September as my base case. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and core CPI rose 0.3%, with core running slightly hotter than the 0.2% expected,” Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, said in a written comment, adding, “that is not a major inflation shock, but it is enough to make a September hike difficult for the Fed to rule out. I expect the Fed to hike once and then pause rather than begin a sustained tightening cycle.”
Technical analysis: BTC attempts fresh breakout
Bitcoin trades at $78,774, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), clustered between roughly $70,850 and $72,950. The Parabolic SAR at $82,183 sits overhead as the next upside trigger.
At the same time, momentum remains constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 59, even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in negative territory, suggesting the advance is positive but not yet supported by a fully aligned momentum backdrop.
Immediate resistance lies at key psychological levels at $78,000 and $ 80,000, with the Parabolic SAR level further up at $82,183. A daily close above this area would open the door to a renewed leg higher. On the downside, initial dynamic support lines up at $76,000, followed by the 50-day EMA at $72,942, reinforced almost immediately by the 200-day EMA at $72,906. A deeper pullback toward the 100-day EMA at $70,858 would still leave the broader bullish structure intact as long as buyers defend this moving-average floor.
Gold technical outlook: XAU climbs as bulls tighten grip
Gold trades at $4,367, hovering just under the 100-day EMA at $4,367 while holding above the 50-day EMA at $4,351 and the 200-day EMA at $4,321, which keeps the broader structure neutral but slightly tilted to the downside. The MACD stays in negative territory with subdued momentum, and the RSI around 49 reflects a lack of directional conviction as the metal consolidates after its recent pullback within the context of a broader downward resistance line.
Immediate resistance lies at the psychological resistance at $4,400, followed by the descending resistance trendline around $4,508 and then the SuperTrend line near $4,664, where sellers are likely to reassert control if the bounce extends.
On the downside, initial support is the 50-day EMA at about $4,351, with the 200-day EMA near $4,321 acting as a more important floor. A daily close below this level would likely strengthen the bearish bias and open the door to a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Cryptocurrency prices FAQs
Token launches influence demand and adoption among market participants. Listings on crypto exchanges deepen the liquidity for an asset and add new participants to an asset’s network. This is typically bullish for a digital asset.
A hack is an event in which an attacker captures a large volume of the asset from a DeFi bridge or hot wallet of an exchange or any other crypto platform via exploits, bugs or other methods. The exploiter then transfers these tokens out of the exchange platforms to ultimately sell or swap the assets for other cryptocurrencies or stablecoins. Such events often involve an en masse panic triggering a sell-off in the affected assets.
Macroeconomic events like the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates influence crypto assets mainly through the direct impact they have on the US Dollar. An increase in interest rate typically negatively influences Bitcoin and altcoin prices, and vice versa. If the US Dollar index declines, risk assets and associated leverage for trading gets cheaper, in turn driving crypto prices higher.
Halvings are typically considered bullish events as they slash the block reward in half for miners, constricting the supply of the asset. At consistent demand if the supply reduces, the asset’s price climbs.
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