Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $75.00 as US-Iran optimism fades
- Silver faces downward pressure as Strait of Hormuz tensions spark fears of an energy-driven inflation shock.
- US-Iran peace optimism faded after US airstrikes and Iranian claims of targeting an American F-35 and several drones.
- Silver traders analyze the Fed's outlook as a declining US Consumer Confidence Index dampens market sentiment.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $75.10 per troy ounce during the early European hours on Wednesday. The non-yielding asset faces persistent downward pressure as renewed uncertainty over the status of the Strait of Hormuz sparked fresh fears of an energy-driven inflation shock. Consequently, these supply-side anxieties have bolstered expectations that central banks will maintain a hawkish stance and keep interest rates higher for longer.
Optimism for a US-Iran peace deal rapidly eroded following US military "self-defense" airstrikes in southern Iran. In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed to have targeted an American F-35 fighter jet and several drones for allegedly violating Iranian airspace. Iran's foreign ministry strongly condemned the strikes in the southern Hormozgan province, branding them a "gross violation" of a fragile, seven-week-old ceasefire. The diplomatic fallout follows state media reports of heavy explosions echoing through the region early Tuesday morning.
Silver traders are closely analyzing the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary outlook, a key driver for the non-interest-bearing Silver. Market sentiment was recently hit by the US Consumer Confidence Index, which edged down 0.7 points to 93.1 in May from an upwardly revised 93.8 in April. This dip was largely driven by escalating inflation anxieties tied to the ongoing conflict in Iran. While households expressed near-term pessimism regarding the current labor market, they remain optimistic that conditions will improve by year-end.
Moving forward, the market is highly focused on upcoming commentary from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governor Lisa Cook for clues on how sticky inflation might shape interest rates. Additionally, traders are awaiting Thursday's release of the April US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for definitive policy cues.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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