Prediction: This Quantum Computing Stock Will Be Worth More Than IonQ 5 Years From Now

IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) has become one of the biggest names in quantum computing, and for good reason. In fact, having grown to a market cap exceeding $14.3 billion, it has aggressively expanded its technology portfolio, made acquisitions, and advanced its commercial plans.

Meanwhile, D-Wave Quantum (NASDAQ: QBTS), with a market cap of around $3.7 billion, reported 21% third-quarter revenue growth on Nov. 10, and there's a case to be made that five years from now it could be the more valuable company of the two.

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Here's why D-Wave's approach already looks different from much of the industry.

D-Wave is solving real-world problems today

While much of the quantum computing industry focuses on developing versatile machines with groundbreaking potential across a range of applications, D-Wave already has technology that solves real-world problems today.

D-Wave's quantum annealing technology differs from that of most of its peers because it is designed to tackle two highly specific types of computing workloads: optimization and sampling problems. In one sense, that narrows its opportunity. However, such problems arise frequently in areas such as logistics, manufacturing, and scheduling, and companies need solutions. That gives D-Wave something valuable in this emerging industry: opportunities to build commercial relationships before the broader quantum computing market fully matures.

For example, Japan's largest mobile carrier, NTT DOCOMO, has deployed a second production application using D-Wave's hybrid quantum technology in its network operations, while D-Wave has also expanded its presence in Europe by delivering an Advantage2 system to Italy.

D-Wave's acquisition of Quantum Circuits could also prove to be one of its biggest milestones so far. Specifically, that purchase gave it a path to developing a gate-model quantum computer, a more commonly pursued technology, to run alongside its annealing systems. This would allow it to address a much broader range of computational problems.

That said, D-Wave doesn't have to abandon its quantum annealing approach to grow. Instead of making an either-or choice about the future of quantum computing, it's now pursuing both approaches simultaneously.

In fact, D-Wave has already laid out an ambitious gate-model roadmap extending to 2032, focused on its dual-rail superconducting technology and a long-term goal of building systems that can reliably run extremely complex computations. And that brings us to the more interesting part of the bull case: D-Wave could tap a much larger commercial market in the future.

Real customer adoption could become a competitive advantage

Besides NTT DOCOMO, D-Wave has expanded partnerships with organizations such as the Canadian consulting giant CGI to integrate quantum technology into enterprise use cases, and is also working on semiconductor manufacturing with SkyWater Technology (acquired in July by IonQ). In fact, D-Wave said that a proof-of-technology project at SkyWater's fabrication facility has already reduced lot delays and is now moving toward a broader proof of concept.

Looking ahead, if quantum computing becomes the next big thing in tech, those early relationships could give D-Wave a head start that competitors may find difficult to replicate.

Still, D-Wave's bull case comes with risks. For one, the company remains early stage, so we can expect its revenues to be highly volatile and its expenses to be high as it continues to invest heavily in research and development (R&D).

There's also execution risk. In particular, D-Wave's gate-model ambitions depend on difficult-to-achieve technical milestones, and competition across the industry is only intensifying.

As a result, if customer adoption develops more slowly than expected, or if a competing technology becomes more commercially successful, the stock could experience significant volatility.

How far would D-Wave need to grow to pass IonQ?

D-Wave stock trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 360 based on its sales for the first nine months of 2026, so it must deliver on high growth expectations.

In order to be worth more than IonQ in five years from now, D-Wave's market cap would need to grow about 3.8 times, from $3.7 billion to IonQ's current $14.3 billion. But IonQ is also growing, and its market cap could rise with it.

Specifically, IonQ management expects about $510 million in sales this year. Among 14 analysts covering the stock, the average forecast is for about $874 million in 2027 revenues. One analyst, Bank of America Securities' Vivek Arya, is more optimistic than average, predicting $950 million in sales in 2027 and $1.5 billion in 2028.

If he's right, and if after 2028, sales grow by 30% a year, IonQ would reach about $3.3 billion in sales by 2031. At 10 times sales, that would put its market cap at about $33 billion.

That means D-Wave's market cap would need to grow by about 8.8 times in five years, or roughly 55% a year.

If D-Wave also traded at 10 times sales in 2031, it, too, would need about $3.3 billion in sales to equal IonQ's market cap.

To be sure, the gain would have to come from sales growth, not a higher valuation multiple. That would be a steep climb, but deals like those it made with NTT DOCOMO and CGI, plus the development of a gate-model computer, could widen its commercial market.

Overall, D-Wave still has a long way to go, but its combination of commercial applications, expanding partnerships, and ambitions in gate-model quantum computing gives it a solid path to becoming an industry leader. That strengthens the case for D-Wave becoming the more valuable company over the next five years.

Rick Orford has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends IonQ. The Motley Fool recommends CGI. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.