Could Investing in Moderna's Stock Double Your Money?

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) has generated terrific gains for investors this year, as the stock has skyrocketed more than 650% entering trading this week. It's been on a tremendous run due to the excitement around its cancer vaccine, intismeran.

The vaccine isn't approved yet, however. And that also means the business may be on the cusp of generating significant revenue in the future, due to the promising treatment. Although the stock's up big this year, could investing in Moderna now still enable investors to double their money? Here's why that may not be an unrealistic scenario.

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There could be more catalysts ahead

Recent clinical trial numbers involving intismeran and Merck's top cancer drug, Keytruda, have lit a fire under Moderna's stock this year. The combination has been highly effective in reducing the risk of death or recurrence in melanoma patients.

But the hope is that intismeran may work in other settings as well. Merck and Moderna are evaluating it for other cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer -- multiple late-stage trials are ongoing in this area.

If there are promising results from other studies, that could heighten hopes that intismeran may be useful for not just one but many types of cancers, likely making it a game changer for Moderna's business, which has been struggling to grow in recent years.

Although the stock is up big this year, its five-year returns are not nearly as impressive

What may surprise investors is that although Moderna's been red-hot this year, it's still not as high as it was in 2021, when the business was booming due to robust demand for its COVID vaccine. Over the past five years, Moderna's stock is still in negative territory, down around 36% as of the end of last week.

It's been a rough ride for investors who have hung on since then. The good news is that the business looks to have a brighter path ahead. While intismeran hasn't obtained approval just yet, it appears highly likely that will happen given its strong clinical trial results. And if intismeran obtains approval for treating multiple cancers, then it may indeed be just what's needed for the healthcare stock to skyrocket even further in value.

For Moderna's stock to double, its valuation would climb to around $180 billion. At that level, the business would likely need to generate strong numbers beyond just having high expectations. Thus, it may take a while for it to get there. Moderna has plenty of potential, but this may not be an appropriate option for investors with a low risk tolerance.

David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Merck and Moderna. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.