Prediction: Anthropic Will Be Worth More Than Bitcoin by the End of the Year. On Polymarket, the Current Odds Are 79%.
Key Points
Anthropic is likely to go public at a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, approximately the same value as Bitcoin right now.
Anthropic's future growth forecasts are off the charts, with some analysts expecting $200 billion in annual revenue by 2028.
Bitcoin has shown its staying power since 2009, and is not as exposed to competitive risk as Anthropic.
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Anthropic's recent IPO filing has been the talk not just of the stock market, but also of the crypto market. That's because it's highly likely that within the next 60 days, Anthropic will have a higher valuation than Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), the longtime crypto behemoth with a market cap of $1.6 trillion.
In fact, on Polymarket, prediction market traders give that a 79% chance of happening. Once Anthropic reaches parity with Bitcoin, investors will face an interesting dilemma. Which is the better buy: Bitcoin or Anthropic?
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Buy Anthropic, sell Bitcoin
The case for buying Anthropic and selling Bitcoin is easy to make. Anthropic has been in the headlines constantly for much of the year and has become one of the clear leaders of the AI industry.
Anthropic's growth numbers are off the charts. In the most recent quarter, Anthropic posted $16.8 billion in revenue. According to industry analysts, Anthropic is on pace to hit $200 billion in annual revenue as soon as 2028. By all accounts, Anthropic deserves a hefty valuation and should be worth more than Bitcoin, which does not generate any revenue.
As Silicon Valley angel investor Jason Calacanis recently pointed out, Bitcoin has become a "dead network." Bitcoin once looked like the future of money, but nobody actually uses it as a medium of exchange. Instead, Bitcoin has become a boring store of value.
Buy Bitcoin, sell Anthropic
On the other hand, it's also easy to argue that AI is currently in a massive speculative bubble. Yes, Anthropic's revenue numbers are beyond impressive, but the company still hasn't figured out a way to become profitable. Once corporations pull back on their AI spending, those revenue numbers are almost certain to plateau.
Moreover, the pace of change in the AI industry is so rapid that it's not even certain that Anthropic will still be the AI leader this time next year. All it takes is the arrival of a low-cost competitor from China, and analysts may completely change their tune about what's next for Anthropic.
By way of comparison, Bitcoin has shown its staying power through a series of market cycles dating all the way back to 2009. Over the past decade, it has been one of the top-performing assets in the world, and it reigns supreme as the top crypto on the planet. There's no low-cost rival coming from China to dislodge Bitcoin from its market-leading position.
How to use prediction market data
As the Anthropic IPO nears its debut, I'll be keeping a close eye on what's happening in the prediction markets. They can provide valuable data on investor sentiment and the relative pricing of different assets.
Back in April, only 20% of prediction market traders thought Anthropic would flip Bitcoin this year. That figure is now close to 80%. So there has been a massive change in sentiment in the span of just six months. Could we see a similar change in sentiment over the next six months? If so, it may be too early to give up on Bitcoin.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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