Strategy's Michael Saylor Blames These 3 Factors for Bitcoin's Recent Sluggish Performance. The Most Important Is Treasury Yields.

Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) Executive Chairman Michael Saylor says trade policy, rising Treasury yields, and a roughly $1 trillion artificial intelligence (AI) build-out are making it harder for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) to recover from its recent bear market as vigorously as expected. As of Oct. 30, the coin is near $77,000, which means it's still 39% below its all-time high set in October 2025, despite climbing about 22% since late July.

Let's weigh each of the factors Saylor identified and figure out which is the most important -- spoiler alert, it's the Treasury yields -- and why.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Most investors have already met Saylor's three culprits

In remarks at ParaFi Capital's Investor Day on Oct. 17, Saylor argued that Bitcoin is "pure capital," meaning its price tends to fall harder than stocks when the market is in a risk-off mood.

In particular, Saylor said that restrictive trade and monetary policy, repeated trade-war declarations against Canada, and rising Treasury bond yields were to blame. The $1 trillion in AI build-out spending is also something he cited as preventing Bitcoin from receiving available capital as it normally would.

The common theme here is that each of those factors saps the pool of money that's willing to hold a volatile asset that doesn't offer a yield like a bond does. The Trump administration's tariffs damped growth forecasts, and it's happening right as investors are funneling their capital into AI stocks and data centers instead of crypto because they believe the returns there are higher.

But the AI issue could cut both ways.

On Oct. 22, Bitcoin fell as much as 2.9% after disappointing tech earnings reports revived the market's doubts about the sustainability of the current pace of AI spending. So an AI bust could sink Bitcoin before any freed-up money rotates its way.

Treasury yields were climbing even before inflation fears

The Treasury issue is more cut-and-dried than the others. The 10-year Treasury yield was close to 5% on Oct. 30, versus 4% a year earlier.

During the same stretch, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which is a gauge of the inflation bond investors expect to experience, barely moved at all between last year and this year, holding at about 2.3%. Inflation expectations do not explain the recent jump in yields, but the war with Iran (and its deleterious effect on the global energy markets) does.

That undercuts a popular bull case for Bitcoin.

If investors feared inflation or fiscal deficits, Bitcoin's fixed supply and its status as a scarce store of value might lure them into a purchase, whether it actually works as an inflation hedge, which is still unproven. Instead, buyers of safe Treasury bonds lock in a real yield of about 2.6% a year higher than expected inflation, making a coin with no yield (and no government backing its value) a much harder sell.

And the Federal Reserve is likely going to tighten again before the close of 2026 in an attempt to control inflation; it raised its benchmark rate on Sept. 16 and held steady on Oct. 28. Investors now expect a December hike. That would only make bonds look more appealing in comparison to Bitcoin.

Should you buy Bitcoin while yields could rise?

Even Saylor's company has paused its buying.

Strategy holds 848,517 coins and it didn't make any new purchases from Oct. 19 to Oct. 28.

Still, a yield headwind getting a bit stronger for a while says nothing about Bitcoin's capped supply failing or the other elements of its investment thesis being undermined.

Strategy will probably return to buying Bitcoin soon, and, for those willing to hold it for at least five years, there's little reason to avoid making a purchase so long as your portfolio is adequately diversified already with safer investments.

Alex Carchidi has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.