Super Micro Stock Forecast: $4 Billion Revenue Beat Lifts SMCI Back Toward $37.89 Resistance

TradingKey - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) went up 1.15% to close at $32.47 on Tuesday. It then jumped over 11% in after-hours trading after the company released a preliminary business update. As of the premarket, it is going for $36.38 a share. That is well below the 52 week high of $56.60.

In the business update, Super Micro Computer, Inc. gave preliminary first quarter results, but did not include full results. Full results, and an earnings call will take place on November 3, 2026, at 5 p.m. E.T.

Preliminary Q1: Revenue Far Above Guidance

For the quarter ending on September 30, 2026, the company expects revenue in the range of $18.5 to $19.5 billion. Previous guidance gave a range of $14.5 to $15.5 billion. Super Micro's update credited the higher guidance to the rising demand for AI platforms. At the midpoint of the updated range, that represents a 27% increase from the previous guidance, and is approximately 3.8 times the revenue reported in the same period last year.

Expected gross margin for the quarter will range from 12.0% to 12.5%. That is up from previously expected gross margin of 10.4% to 10.8%. Customer and product mix was credited for the improvement.

How This Fits the Full-Year Guide

Super Micro projected its fiscal 2027 revenue to be between $65 billion and $72 billion in August. The projection was around 28% higher than the consensus estimate at the time.

A first quarter revenue of about $19 billion would cover about 28% of the midpoint of the full year guidance.

Margins: Better Than Expected, But Thin

Gross margins of between 12% and 12.5% exceeded expectations; however, they were down from the previous quarter at 17.5%. Large AI server deals often result in thin gross margins. Therefore, the increase in revenue would not translate to an increase in profitability to the same extent.

The market was generally unfazed. While the margin contraction was concerning, the revenue number, which was viewed positively, answered some questions about the growth of AI servers.

Last Quarter's Baseline

Revenues for Fiscal Q4 came in at $11.1 billion, up approximately 91% from the year-earlier quarter. While revenues slightly missed analyst estimates, adjusted earnings came in at $1.70 per share, exceeding the $0.92 consensus estimate. Additionally, the company reported booking over $60 billion worth of orders. Super Micro's CEO, Charles Liang, announced that the company began Fiscal 2027 with a record orders backlog. The orders may, however, not be strictly binding.

Export-Control Overhang

U.S. prosecutors have charged a Super Micro co-founder and others with diverting servers with advanced AI chips to China in violation of U.S. export laws and regulations, and a contractor in the case pleaded guilty this month. Super Micro’s board is running an independent review, and the impact of the case is still uncertain.

On October 15, Super Micro announced that Mark Long, a former executive at Western Digital, would become the company’s Chief Financial Officer. Long would replace David Weigand, who had been CFO since 2021, ending a search that began in December 2024.

Analyst Positioning

The consensus analyst rating on Super Micro is Hold, with an average target price of $42.27. Citi and Mizuho have $45 and $43 targets, respectively, and Neutral ratings. Rosenblatt has a target of $51 and a Buy rating.

Super Micro Technical Analysis: Daily Close Above $37.89 Could Open $41.40

The daily chart of SMCI shows that after breaking down and out of the rising channel that had been in play since July, the stock broke below both the 200-day EMA at $35.31 and the 50-day EMA at $37.63. However, sellers could not break price below $31 over the past three sessions. Therefore, with the premarket gain, SMCI would reclaim the 200-day EMA and the $33.06 level.

Super Micro Stock Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

RSI is at 33, which is below the signal line. However, it is trending higher. Therefore, while there is no confirmation of a move higher, selling pressure is definitely decreasing.

The more significant level is the 50-day EMA at $37.63, which is also horizontal resistance. A close above the 50-day EMA would target the $41.40 level, and then the $45.77 level. Therefore, a close above $37.89 would confirm the break of the rising channel was a false move. However, if price breaks below $30.92, then $27.66 would come into play. I am slightly bullish for the near-term.

Key Levels

Last: $32.47, +1.15% Oct 20th

Support: $30.92, $27.66, $23.29

Resistance: $33.06, $35.31, $37.63 to $37.89, $41.40, $45.77

RSI: 33.22, 48.81 signal

Bullish: Close above $37.89

Bearish: Close below $30.92

FAQs

Why is Super Micro stock jumping today?

Super Micro announced preliminary Q1 revenue of $18.5 to $19.5 billion, about $4 billion above the mid-point of their guidance and beating Wall Street expectations by a wide margin. The company attributed the strong results to increased demand for AI platforms.

What is the Super Micro stock forecast after the update?

There is a slight near-term bullish bias above $35.31. A bullish close above $37.89 would be target $41.40, $45.77. A bearish close below $30.92 would target $27.66, $23.29.

Bottom Line

Super Micro announced strong preliminary Q1 results, citing surprise demand for AI and HPC servers. While the strong results are clearly positive, the company may be negatively impacted by the export control review and AI/HPC server gross margins may remain thin. From a technical perspective, a bullish daily close above $37.89 would invalidate the recent bearish bias, while a daily close below $30.92 would reinforce the bearish case.