Micron Stock Price Forecast: HBM4, Gross Margin and Earnings Guidance in Focus, Stock Expected to Top $1,100

TradingKey - Micron Technology (MU) will report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results after the U.S. market close on September 30. The company previously provided fourth-quarter guidance of revenue of $50 billion ± $1 billion, non-GAAP EPS of $31 ± $1, and a gross margin of approximately 86%. For investors, the first thing to watch in this earnings report is the variance between actual revenue, EPS, and gross margin compared with the company's previous guidance.

Micron Earnings Focus on HBM4, Memory Prices and Next-Quarter Guidance

First are revenue, EPS, and gross margin. If actual revenue and earnings per share exceed market expectations while gross margin remains near or above the company's previous guidance, it is generally favorable for maintaining market expectations for profitability; if gross margin or profit figures fall below expectations, it could cause the stock price to decline.

Second is next-quarter performance guidance. DRAM and NAND prices are currently at relatively high levels, so the company's forecasts for the next fiscal quarter's revenue, gross margin, and memory prices will impact market judgment on subsequent profit growth. If guidance exceeds market expectations, the stock price may find support; if the company expects price growth to slow or gross margins to decline, the market may readjust future earnings expectations.

Regarding AI memory, Micron previously disclosed that HBM4 has begun mass shipments for major customer platforms, qualification samples have been provided to multiple end customers, and R&D for HBM4E is also progressing. Key focus areas in the earnings report include HBM4 shipment progress, customer qualification, and capacity planning for 2027. If shipment progress and order volume exceed previous expectations, it could raise market expectations for the revenue share of Micron's AI memory business; if mass production or customer qualification progress falls below expectations, it could limit short-term valuation expansion.

In addition, capital expenditure and capacity planning are also key items to watch in this earnings report. The pace of capacity expansion for DRAM, NAND, and HBM will impact future supply. If capital expenditure remains relatively stable while demand forecasts are not significantly revised downward, changes in market expectations regarding memory supply-demand balance may be limited; if the company significantly raises its capacity expansion plans, the market may further evaluate the impact of increased future supply on product prices.

Micron Stock Price Technical Analysis

Micron stock daily chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at the daily chart of Micron's stock price, the overall candlestick pattern continues to maintain an inverse head-and-shoulders structure, indicating that bullish momentum in the market still holds the upper hand, and the short-term stock price may continue to rise.

Near-term overhead resistance is mainly concentrated in the $1,080–$1,110 range. If revenue, profit margins, the HBM business, and next-quarter guidance in the earnings report as a whole exceed market expectations and drive the stock price to break through the recent high of $1,108.72, the stock is expected to challenge its previous all-time high of $1,255 in the next phase. On the downside, initial support to watch is in the $1,030–$1,050 range, with further support located at the $1,000 psychological level. If the earnings data or performance guidance fall short of market expectations and push the stock price below the aforementioned support levels, the short-term high-level consolidation range may shift further downward.