Tom Lee Sees a Bull Market in the Binance Hack. Stablecoin Data Disagrees

BitMine Chairman Tom Lee says crypto’s muted response to the $6.3 billion Binance hack signals a bull market. However, stablecoin and sentiment data show money and confidence still leaving the market.

Ethereum (ETH) traded at $2,254.11 at press time, down 1.71% over the past 24 hours, per BeInCrypto Markets. Against Bitcoin (BTC), ETH has held up better this week after losing ground through most of October. It is down 2.87% over the past week compared to BTC’s 3.6% drop.

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Lee Reads a Calm Crypto Market as a Bull Signal

Lee made his case in BitMine’s latest weekly holdings update. He compared the Binance theft with the $1.5 billion Bybit hack in February 2025.

ETH fell 8% on the day Bybit disclosed its theft and 20% within a week, according to Lee. Since the Binance disclosure, ETH has dropped 4%, even though the theft was about four times larger.

Lee gave six reasons for the muted reaction.

• Binance can cover all customer losses.
• No chain of decentralized finance (DeFi) failures followed, as it did after Bybit.
• Swift industry action halved potential losses.
• The FBI named North Korea within 2 days, versus up to 180 days in past heists.
• The breach hit Binance’s corporate systems rather than a blockchain.

The sixth tied price action to market direction.

“Limited price downside is a sign that a crypto ‘bull market’ is underway, notwithstanding recent price declines,” he said.

Meanwhile, BitMine added 8,573 ETH over the past week, bringing its holdings to 6,060,506 ETH. That equals 4.9% of Ethereum’s 122.2 million supply.

Stablecoins and Sentiment Pull the Other Way

In contrast to Lee’s price-based argument, liquidity and sentiment data point to caution.

Total stablecoin market cap stood at $270.3 billion on October 1, per CW8900, an analyst.  It has since fallen to $263.4 billion, a $6.9 billion outflow over the past month.

The analyst rated the trend bearish. Bullish phases typically begin when money flows into the market, CW8900 noted, yet funds have kept exiting.

“For a rebound to occur, stablecoins must flow back into the market. Once stablecoin flows shift back to a net inflow, the market is likely to show a rebound,” the post added.

Investor mood has soured as well. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 26, in Fear territory, on November 3. It read 37 a day earlier, 48 a week ago, and 65, in Greed, a month ago.

CW8900 expects a rebound once stablecoin flows turn positive again. Until that happens, Lee’s crypto bull market case for ETH rests largely on price resilience. 

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