Tom Lee Says Yields Below 5% Mean the AI Selloff Is Nearly Over

Tom Lee of Fundstrat says the artificial intelligence (AI) selloff is near its end. He cites rates back below 5% and a crowded short trade in tech, even as the Nasdaq slides.

The Dow sat more than 6% below the record it set earlier this month, according to the CNBC segment.

What Does Lee Think Comes After the AI Selloff?

Lee is managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat, a Wall Street research firm. He told CNBC‘s Closing Bell that two headwinds have eased.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) may be flipping from hawkish to dovish, he said. Meanwhile, rates that had markets fearing 6% are back below 5%.

Lee named his preferred buys as Nvidia, memory chips, the Magnificent 7 megacap tech stocks, software, and crypto. He is also bullish on a broad cyclical rally, since financial stocks have lagged while rates fall.

He made a similar case last week, when he called Friday’s drop a crypto and chip buy. Separately, Lee chairs BitMine, a company that holds Ethereum (ETH).

Can Debt Markets Reopen Before the Next Leg Down?

Still, Lee named two remaining obstacles. Debt markets are partly shut, and uncertainty over the war lingers.

Instead, he called the funding chill healthy, because it limits a runaway speculative boom. A Fundstrat report weighed $30 trillion of AI spending over 25 years. It found plenty of capital to fund it, Lee said.

“I think AI is a more important infrastructure build arguably than mobile.”

Tom Lee, Fundstrat managing partner, via CNBC

However, Gartner senior director analyst Will Sommer sees a revenue shortfall. He says AI revenue will be too small to deliver profitable returns on planned spending.

He cites nearly $1 trillion of spending in 2026 and another $6 trillion through 2030.

Lee places AI in 1997, the year he said Cisco fell 50%. Historically, Cisco still peaked in March 2000, then lost nearly 90%, according to Sherwood.

The stakes reach beyond tech. The top 15 stocks hold a record 46.7% of the S&P 500, The Kobeissi Letter reported, against 27.2% in 2000. Whether debt markets reopen as rates ease may decide if Lee’s bottom call holds.