Ripple Price Prediction: XRP Rebound Momentum Fades as Risk of Testing $1 Heightens

TradingKey - XRP Rebound Fails to Hold Above $1.40; Bulls Retreat as Token Risks Retesting $1.00

On August 20, Ripple (XRP) saw its price rebound momentum fade, falling by about 3% today to drop below $1.40 again, trading at $1.38. Last week, following the realization of two major headwinds—the Federal Reserve's rate hike and the Clarity Act—the market was met with major positive news regarding the U.S. SEC's innovation exemption for U.S. stock tokenization. Cryptocurrencies rallied across the board, and XRP strengthened alongside the broader market, rebounding from a low of $1.25 to $1.45, a cumulative gain of around 16%.

However, Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break through the recent resistance level of $82,000–$83,000 and is entering a high-level consolidation phase, capping further upside for XRP. Currently, multiple indicators across fundamentals and technicals are issuing warning signals, and market concerns over XRP potentially double-bottoming or even testing the key psychological support of $1.00 continue to escalate.

As one of the most regulatory-sensitive cryptocurrencies, XRP saw market expectations for regulatory tailwinds fall through after the Clarity Act was vetoed. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's rate hikes have suppressed overall market risk appetite, leaving XRP without additional external catalysts to drive further gains.

In addition, recent favorable SEC policy developments had little connection to Ripple. Direct beneficiaries such as UNI, HYPE, and AVAX absorbed substantial market liquidity, whereas XRP experienced noticeable capital outflows. Since XRP peaked at $1.70 on August 22, funds have shown an overall net outflow over the past month.

XRP spot flows, Source: Coinglass

XRP has been repeatedly suppressed by a strong resistance zone above during its rally. If the price fails to hold firmly above the key resistance level of $1.40, it indicates an inability to reverse the short-term bearish pattern. XRP's first support level in this pullback lies in the $1.25–$1.30 range, which corresponds to a previous high-volume congestion area and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

XRP price chart, Source: TradingView

If it breaks below the aforementioned support, it will face a critical line of defense—the key round-number level of $1.00. This is not only a strong psychological barrier, but also a deep 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone and a powerful buying support area. If bulls still fail to form a bottom here, the downward trend will expand further, risking a plunge of over 50%.