Vail Resorts (MTN) Fiscal Q4 and FY2026 Earnings Call: FY2027 EBITDA Outlook
Source Tradingkey
Key Takeaways
- Fiscal 2026 total revenue declined 3.5% as skier visitation fell 30%, but pass revenue increased 4%, supporting Resort Reported EBITDA of $746 million.
- Fourth-quarter resort net revenue was approximately flat year over year. Australian results were pressured by cumulative snowfall more than 50% below the 10-year average.
- Through September 18, pass units declined 12%, pass product days declined 10%, and sales dollars including tax fell 6%. Management attributed much of the weakness to delayed purchasing following the prior season’s poor conditions.
- For fiscal 2027, Vail Resorts guided to net income attributable to Vail Resorts of $158 million to $233 million and Resort Reported EBITDA of $805 million to $865 million, including approximately $14 million of one-time costs.
- Fiscal 2027 guidance assumes a meaningful visitation recovery, but U.S. visitation is not expected to fully return to fiscal 2025 levels. The company expects to recapture part of the lower pass visitation through in-season lift ticket sales.
- The Resource Efficiency Transformation Program is expected to deliver approximately $25 million of incremental fiscal 2027 efficiencies. Vail Resorts also identified another $30 million of annual technology-related efficiencies expected by fiscal 2028.
Key Financial Data
| Metric | Result or outlook | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Fiscal 2026 total revenue | Down 3.5% | Skier visitation declined 30% |
| Fiscal 2026 pass revenue | Up 4% | Supported by the advance commitment model |
| Fiscal 2026 Resort Reported EBITDA | $746 million | In line with the midpoint of the June range |
| Q4 resort net revenue | Approximately flat YoY | Australia weakness was partly offset by pass sales growth and Grand Teton Lodge Company |
| Fiscal 2027 net income attributable to Vail Resorts | $158 million-$233 million | Company guidance |
| Fiscal 2027 Resort Reported EBITDA | $805 million-$865 million | Includes approximately $14 million of one-time costs |
| Implied FY2027 resort EBITDA margin | 27.3% | Excludes one-time costs; approximately 200 basis points below the original FY2026 outlook |
| FY2027 cash taxes | $75 million-$85 million | Company guidance |
| Liquidity at July 31 | Approximately $0.8 billion | Net leverage was 3.9x trailing 12-month total reported EBITDA |
| Expected FY2027 year-end leverage | Approximately 3.5x | Assumes no change in net debt from fiscal 2026 year-end |
| Quarterly dividend | $2.22 per share | Declared by the board |
Business and Operating Performance
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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