Tesla set to beat Q3 delivery estimates on robust U.S. and China demand, says RBC
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is on track to exceed market expectations for third-quarter deliveries, driven by stronger sales momentum in both the United States and China, according to RBC Capital Markets. The firm projects 456,000 vehicle deliveries for Q3, compared with consensus forecasts of 440,000 (Visible Alpha) and 448,000 (FactSet).
RBC’s tracking model, based on registration data from major markets, points to a sharp rebound from the 384,000 vehicles delivered in Q2. U.S. demand likely benefited from the Inflation Reduction Act consumer credit expiring at the end of September, though some buyers may have delayed purchases in anticipation of Tesla’s lower-priced models scheduled for Q4.
In the U.S., deliveries are expected to climb 22.5% quarter-on-quarter to roughly 168,600 vehicles, reflecting strong late-quarter momentum. In China, growth looks even stronger: RBC estimates a 29.4% jump from Q2, with July volumes up 41.4% from April and August up 48.1% from May. September deliveries in China are projected to come in about 12% above June levels.
RBC analysts noted that regulatory changes in China, including updated price laws and new payment requirements for suppliers, have weighed on local automakers such as BYD (HK:1211), while indirectly boosting Tesla’s competitive position.
In Europe, Tesla is forecast to post a more modest 8.1% sequential increase in deliveries, despite ongoing headwinds from EU tariffs on Chinese exports. Additional deliveries from other global markets should add around 60,000 vehicles, bringing the total near 456,000.
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