Social Security's Trump Bump-Driven 2027 COLA Is on Track to Make History 3 Different Ways

The wait is nearly over for Social Security's more than 71 million traditional beneficiaries. In less than two weeks, on Oct. 14, the release of the September inflation report will provide the final data point needed to calculate Social Security's 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).

In simple terms, Social Security's COLA is the near-annual raise given to recipients to offset the inflationary pressures they've faced over the last year. For instance, if a broad basket of goods and services regularly bought by seniors rises in cost by 3% from one year to the next, Social Security benefits would need to increase by the same percentage to avoid a loss of buying power. Social Security's COLA is the mechanism that combats a loss of purchasing power over time.

Image source: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok.

While annual benefit increases are normal, next year's cost-of-living adjustment is on track to be something special, courtesy of President Donald Trump. The president's policies are set to boost benefits (i.e., a "Trump bump"), leading to history (likely) being made three different ways.

One of the largest Social Security raises since 1993

To begin with, Social Security's traditional beneficiaries -- retired workers, workers with disabilities, and survivors of deceased workers -- should receive one of the largest payout boosts over the last 35 years. The catalyst for this nominal boost in monthly payouts is two of Trump's policies: tariffs and the Iran war.

With regard to tariffs, it'll mark the second consecutive year they've led to a Trump bump. The president's "Liberation Day" tariffs, announced in early April 2025, introduced sweeping global duties and higher reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries. Despite these tariffs being overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court in February 2026, their impact on consumer prices last year provided a modest lift to Social Security's 2026 COLA.

BREAKING: August CPI inflation comes in at 3.4%, in-line with expectations of 3.4%

Core CPI inflation falls to 2.4%, also in-line with expectations of 2.4%.

Month-over-month CPI inflation rose +0.4%, the biggest increase since May 2026.

Treasury yields are rising on the news.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 11, 2026

The same story applies to next year's projected cost-of-living adjustment. The Trump administration unveiled sweeping global duties on more than 80 countries in late July. Adding duties to unfinished imported goods, such as steel, can increase manufacturing costs and boost consumer prices.

The Trump-led Iran war is the other major source of inflation. A nearly persistent seven-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created the largest energy supply disruption in modern history. Fuel prices have soared in its wake.

According to estimates by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior advocacy group, and independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson, Social Security checks should increase by 3.5% in 2027, if not more. If TSCL's and Johnson's projections are close to accurate, we could be looking at the sixth- or perhaps fifth-largest (if inflation reaccelerated in September) Social Security raise in 35 years.

A first-in-30-year moment for Social Security beneficiaries

In addition to one of the largest nominal payout increases since 1993, we're also on track to witness a first-in-30-year moment in 2027.

BREAKING: 71 million Social Security beneficiaries will see a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) beginning in January 2026. The average annual increase over the last decade: 3.1%.https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih pic.twitter.com/pgqtPLgqMB

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 24, 2025

Above-average Social Security raises have been a common theme in recent years. After a series of anemic or nonexistent COLAs throughout the 2010s, beneficiaries have received cost-of-living adjustments of:

• 2022: 5.9%
• 2023: 8.7% (largest in 41 years)
• 2024: 3.2%
• 2025: 2.5%
• 2026: 2.8%

Assuming TSCL and Johnson are reasonably close in their estimates, 2027 will mark the sixth consecutive year in which Social Security raises met or exceeded 2.5%.

The last time monthly Social Security checks increased by at least 2.5% for six consecutive years was the previous century. From 1988 through 1997, annual COLAs ranged from 2.6% to 5.4%.

A sixth straight year with an above-average COLA should lead to an event that no one's witnessed in 30 years.

Image source: Getty Images.

A rare silver lining for tens of millions of retirees

Lastly, Social Security's Trump bump-driven 2027 COLA is currently on track to provide a rare silver lining for tens of millions of retirees currently enrolled in traditional Medicare.

Traditional Medicare has three segments:

• Part A: Covers inpatient hospital stays and has no monthly premium for approximately 99% of workers.
• Part B: Covers outpatient services and has a standard monthly premium of $202.90 in 2026, with surcharges for individuals with higher incomes.
• Part D: Covers prescription drugs and has a national base premium of $38.99 per month in 2026, with income-related adjustments for those with higher incomes.

Close to half of all Social Security recipients aged 65 and over (the qualifying age for Medicare) are enrolled in traditional Medicare.

Throughout much of the 21st century, Medicare's monthly Part B premium has risen at a faster pace than Social Security's annual cost-of-living adjustment. Whereas Social Security's payouts rose by 3.2%, 2.5%, and 2.8% from 2024 to 2026, Medicare's Part B premium increased by 5.9%, 5.9%, and 9.7%, respectively, from 2024 to 2026.

Rapidly rising Part B premiums can offset some, or all, of a retiree's annual Social Security raise.

But according to the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report, the Part B premium is projected to rise by a more modest 3.25% to $209.50 per month in 2027. If this forecast is accurate, it'll mark the first time since 2023 that Social Security's COLA will increase at a faster pace than the Part B premium.

This rare silver lining will allow tens of millions of retirees to keep more of next year's raise, rather than losing it to higher Part B premiums.

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