Qualcomm Stock Price Forecast: Surges Over 20% in a Month as $200 Level Faces Make-or-Break Battle

TradingKey - Qualcomm stock surges over 20% in the last 30 days; whether momentum can continue hinges on the $200 mark.

On September 24, Eastern Time, Qualcomm (QCOM) saw its stock rally hit resistance at the $200 mark, falling 1.4% in pre-market trading to trade at $194.47. Over the past 30 days (from late August through September), Qualcomm's stock demonstrated a strong rebound, surging rapidly from around $160 to the $198–$199 range, posting a single-month gain of 23%. However, as the stock price approaches the round-number threshold of $200, the market has entered a core battlefield for bulls and bears.

Qualcomm's major stock surge this time was primarily driven by multiple factors, including a major partnership with Amazon (AMZN)'s AWS, market recognition of its business transformation, and chip price increases. Effective September 1, Qualcomm implemented double-digit price hikes on select chip products, which the market expects will boost gross margins and profitability in subsequent quarters, supporting the stock rebound. On September 8, Qualcomm and Amazon announced a multi-generational custom chip partnership agreement, under which Qualcomm will supply custom chips and AI data center optical interconnect solutions for AWS's AI infrastructure, further driving the stock rebound higher.

In addition, Qualcomm reiterated at public events such as the Goldman Sachs Tech Conference that the revenue share from automotive chips and edge AI/IoT is rising rapidly, emphasizing its target for non-smartphone revenue to exceed $40 billion by FY2029. This bolstered investor confidence that even if Qualcomm faces future shifts in iPhone chip foundry arrangements, it can bridge the gap with automotive, PC, and AI data centers.

Currently, Qualcomm's stock price is consolidating and testing the $195–$199 range. The $200 level is not only a key psychological barrier, but also a strong Fibonacci 0.5 resistance level, as well as a critical battleground where trapped buyers from previous highs meet bullish and bearish trend decisions. If Qualcomm's stock can break through this level on heavy volume and hold above it for more than three consecutive trading days, it will confirm the opening of a new upward channel, with a target looking toward the all-time high of $260.

Qualcomm stock price chart, Source: TradingView

However, if Qualcomm encounters strong selling pressure at the $200 mark and pulls back, its stock price may retest the $180–$182 range, which serves as a support line near the September breakout point and offers a buy-on-dips entry point with a higher margin of safety. If a deeper correction breaks below the $170 stop-loss level, it would signal an end to this sharp rally, warning of a potential slide toward the August low of $140.