Micron Stock Forecast: Michael Burry Increases Short Position, Q4 Earnings Due Sept. 30, Can Stock Break $1,100?

TradingKey - Michael Burry recently posted on Substack stating that he has ramped up his short bets on Micron Technology (MU), Nebius (NBIS), iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), and Palantir (PLTR), calling the bet "quite sizable." His core bearish thesis on Micron is that the current memory shortage is mainly driven by capacity reallocation; once standard DRAM supply recovers, prices could come under pressure.

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron had previously shifted a portion of their capacity from traditional DRAM to High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to meet AI data center demand, creating a tight supply of standard memory and supporting prices and margins. Burry believes this shortage does not equate to long-term booming demand for traditional memory. As manufacturers resume standard DRAM production and new capacity is released across multiple regions, the supply-demand deficit could narrow; if inventories continue to rise, falling prices will erode Micron's profitability.

Acer CEO Jason Chen recently stated that memory inventories are building up and suppliers across multiple regions are increasing supply, with price pressures expected to emerge around the end of 2027. This challenges the market expectation that "shortages will persist for several years." Burry said the statement aligns with his own view, while acknowledging that uncertainties remain regarding supply and demand dynamics. When the price inflection point will occur remains critical.

Burry's short positioning did not start with Micron. His Scion Asset Management had established large put option positions in Nvidia and Palantir in the third quarter of 2025. In late June 2026, he shorted Nvidia, Applied Materials, and SOXX in his personal name, rolling over SOXX put options to March 2027, before subsequently shorting Micron. He explained that he chose to short Micron directly because put premiums were excessively high. This recent addition has further expanded his short exposure.

However, Micron's stock price rose to near $1,100 on September 22, returning to its highest level since early July. Micron is reportedly scheduled to release its earnings report on September 30, with analysts expecting its fourth-fiscal-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to reach $31.43, up from $3.03 in the same period last year, representing an increase of about 940%; forward 12-month EPS is projected to reach $144.94. Strong current earnings have supported market sentiment.

Micron daily chart, source: TradingView

After a continuous rally, Micron's stock price surged higher before pulling back, and is currently trading between the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($1,057.35) and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level ($1,144.19).

Although the stock price pulled back after peaking at $1,105.50, it remains above the core pivot point, indicating that the bullish structure has not been damaged. The current focus is not on judging a single-day decline, but on observing whether $1,057.35 can continue to hold.

On the other hand, the surge and subsequent pullback indicate short-term profit-taking above $1,100. However, as long as the closing price holds firmly above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($1,057.35), the rally still has a chance to push toward the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level ($1,144.19); if it breaks below $1,057.35 decisively, it will turn into a pullback from highs, with initial focus on the first support level at the 5-day moving average ($1,046.12).