AST SpaceMobile vs. Firefly Aerospace: Which Outer Space Upstart Is a Better Buy in 2026?

The commercialization of space has moved from science fiction to a multi-billion-dollar reality, creating new opportunities for retail investors. AST SpaceMobile Inc (NASDAQ:ASTS) and Firefly Aerospace Inc (NASDAQ:FLY) offer different paths into this final frontier.

While both companies operate in the space economy, they target distinct segments. One aims to revolutionize global communication through a satellite-based broadband network, while the other focuses on the infrastructure needed to reach and operate in orbit. Identifying the better buy requires a look at their business models and financial health.

The case for AST SpaceMobile

AST SpaceMobile is developing a space-based cellular broadband network that allows standard, unmodified mobile phones to connect directly to satellites. The company has secured partnerships with major network operators, including AT&T (NYSE:T), Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), and Vodafone Group(NASDAQ:VOD), representing nearly 3 billion potential subscribers. Relying on a small number of major carriers for its primary service access adds a layer of risk to the business. However, its revenue-sharing model with these partners provides a clear path to scaling its user base without acquiring individual customers.

In FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $70.9 million, a substantial jump from the $4.4 million reported in the prior fiscal year. The company reported a net loss of nearly $342 million for the period. While revenue growth is accelerating as the company begins its commercial rollout, profitability remains a distant goal during this build-out phase.This resulted in a net margin of -482.2%, illustrating the high costs associated with launching a satellite constellation before reaching full operational scale.

The current debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 1.2x, showing the company relies more on debt than equity to fund its operations. Based on the December 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio is roughly 16.4x. This indicates a high level of liquid assets relative to near-term liabilities. Free cash flow, which is cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures, was more than negative $1.1 billion for FY 2025, as the firm invested heavily in its proprietary manufacturing and launch capabilities. The current ratio is 16.4x, which measures a company's ability to cover short-term liabilities with assets that can be converted to cash quickly.

The case for Firefly Aerospace

Firefly Aerospace operates in the defense stocks segment, providing launch services and spacecraft solutions for national security and commercial customers. The company maintains a long-term agreement with Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT) through 2031 and collaborates with Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE:NOC) on major space systems. These relationships provide Firefly with a steady pipeline of government and defense work, focusing on missions from Earth to the Moon. Its acquisition of SciTec in 2025 also added intelligence and data processing capabilities to its portfolio.

In FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $159.9 million, up from nearly $60.8 million in the previous fiscal year. This 163% growth indicates a successful scaling of its launch cadence and expanded service offerings. However, the company reported a net loss of nearly $298.3 million for the year. Its net margin of -186.6% shows that while revenue is growing rapidly, the costs of developing complex aerospace hardware still outweigh current sales.

Based on its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 0.3x, suggesting a relatively conservative use of debt to fund operations. The current ratio is nearly 4.5x, indicating a solid buffer for meeting short-term financial obligations. Free cash flow for FY 2025 was negative $237.8 million. Because Firefly is building out its Alpha launch vehicle and Eclipse lunar lander, high capital expenditures continue to outpace cash generated from operations.

Risk profile comparison

AST SpaceMobile faces significant execution risks because its SpaceMobile Service depends on the successful launch and assembly of a massive satellite constellation. The company has a history of losses and requires substantial additional capital to fund its expansion, which could lead to dilution or liquidity issues. It also operates under strict regulatory requirements for spectrum access in multiple countries. Furthermore, it faces competition from established satellite providers like Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) and Globalstar (NASDAQ:GSAT), as well as voting control concentrated in its founder, Abel Avellan.

Firefly Aerospace is sensitive to shifts in the U.S. government budget, as a large portion of its revenue comes from national security and civil space appropriations. Any delays in the launch cadence for its Alpha rocket or technical failures during missions could materially hurt its reputation and financial standing. The company is also navigating litigation regarding contractual fees and the complex integration of its recent acquisitions. Unlike its competitors in the communications space, Firefly must manage the high-stakes operational risks of orbital launches where a single failure can lead to total mission loss.

Valuation comparison

Firefly Aerospace appears to be the more conservatively valued option based on current revenue, while AST SpaceMobile commands a premium for its disruptive potential. Neither has a forward price-to-earnings ratio.

Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.

Which stock would I buy in 2026?

AST SpaceMobile expects its space-based network to give it a significant business in a few years. Essentially, AST SpaceMobile is a direct-to-device play to provide full mobile phone compatibility for major carriers without the need for specialized equipment. Many of its potential clients are also equity holders in the company, including AT&T (NYSE:T), Verizon, Bell Canada, Rakuten, Vodafone, Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL), American Tower (NYSE:AMT), and Telus (NYSE:TU).

By the end of 2026, the company should have 45 satellites, which will allow it to fully service the U.S., and that should start to supercharge revenue growth. For fiscal 2026, Wall Street sees $149 million in sales, jumping to $725 million the following year, when the company is projected to turn its first modest profit. Free cash flow appears much more manageable, with analysts expecting positive free cash flow in 2029.

Firefly went public in an initial public offering last August at $45 a share. Shares have spent much of the past year below that mark, reflecting typical post-IPO volatility.

More important is the company's recent business success. Firefly Aerospace is the only private company to execute a successful lunar landing, achieving this in March 2025 with its Blue Ghost Mission I. The success of that effort has ingratiated Firefly with NASA, which sent 10 payloads to the Moon with last year's mission. The company now plans annual missions to the Moon to deliver payloads for NASA as part of the agency's aim to construct a permanent lunar base. Exciting stuff, and considering the attention the recent SpaceX IPO-Space Exploration Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:SPCX) -- will bring to space businesses, that can only be another positive for Firefly.

While future projections are inherently speculative, Wall Street analysts expect Firefly to top $440 million this year and reach $1 billion in annual revenue in its fiscal 2028.

Investing in either of these young companies will likely bring some turbulence, but both offer rapid growth potential for those going along for the ride. Firefly Aerospace's promise of being a key supplier to NASA's moon aspirations, as well as its lower P/S, make it the smart pick here.

Brendan Coffey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, Alphabet, American Tower, Firefly Aerospace, and Lockheed Martin. The Motley Fool recommends TELUS, Verizon Communications, and Vodafone Group Public. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.