Australian Dollar hits three-month peak on risk-on mood, eyes on Warsh

• AUD/USD hits three-month high as risk appetite improves.
• Solid Australian spending keeps RBA hike risks alive.
• Warsh speech and sentiment data may steer Dollar direction.

The Aussie Dollar climbed to a three-month high of 0.7198 on Thursday, even though the US Dollar steadied on solid jobs data and hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7194, up 0.34%.

AUD/USD climbs as resilient spending and Wall Street gains offset Fed hawkishness

Wall Street extended its gains, boosted by NVIDIA earnings report, US data was mixed, as Initial Jobless Claims dipped from 207K to 203K, coming below estimates of 208K. Other data showed that the Goods Trade Balance widened from $-102.1 billion to $-118.8 billion in July.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against six currencies, is flat at 99.12, even though US Treasury yields rose. The US 10-year T-note rises almost three basis points at 4.676%.

Some Federal Reserve officials crossed the wires at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Cleveland’s Fed Beth Hammack said that the time to act is now, to curb sticky inflation, while Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee said that the three-month inflation average “doesn’t look terrible. In the meantime, Boston Fed Susan Collins was neutral, though she added that a rate hike is warranted if inflation disappoints, as revealed by the WSJ.

Market participants' focus shifts to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who will speak on Friday at Jackson Hole. In addition, traders will also digest the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index on its final reading in August.

In Australia, household spending rose by 1.1% in July, data showed on Thursday. This suggests that consumer demand remained resilient, adding upward pressure on inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA )'s last meeting minutes revealed that the board discussed a possible rate hike.

The Aussie economic schedule will be absent, leaving the pair leaning on US Dollar dynamics.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7195, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the triple simple moving average (50, 100, 200) clustered around 0.7010. The pair is pressing against a nearby horizontal cap at 0.7198, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at about 70 suggests overbought conditions that could temper the pace of further gains without yet signaling a clear reversal.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the horizontal barrier near 0.7198, and a sustained break above this pivot would open the way for an extension of the current advance. On the downside, initial support sits at the current trading area around 0.7195, with stronger underlying demand coming in from the rising trend-line structure and the triple SMA cluster near 0.7010, where a deeper corrective pullback would likely be tested.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)