Up 25% in August, Is Bitcoin Now a No-Brainer Buy?

Seemingly out of nowhere, the price of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has taken off like a rocket in August. It's now up 25% for the month, putting Bitcoin on a trajectory for its best August since 2017. Bitcoin now trades near $80,000.

It's no surprise, then, that analysts and investors have been busy ratcheting up their year-end price targets for Bitcoin. There's now a growing consensus that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of the year. So is now the time to start loading up on Bitcoin?

Bitcoin's path to $80,000

To answer that question, it's helpful to consider how Bitcoin got here in the first place. The primary catalyst appears to be a high-level meeting of crypto executives at the White House on Aug. 19.

The meeting was supposed to be a last-minute push for passage of crypto's Clarity Act. But it turned into a cheerleading event for Bitcoin. President Donald Trump even went so far as to suggest that the U.S. government might finally be ready to start buying Bitcoin for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Image source: Getty Images.

Within days, Bitcoin soared past $75,000. That's an enormously important price point for Bitcoin because it's approximately the average acquisition price of Bitcoin for Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), the world's biggest Bitcoin treasury company.

As soon as Bitcoin eclipsed that price, the massive Bitcoin holdings of Strategy flipped from a $10 billion loss to a $1.4 billion gain. That threw even more fuel on the fire, because it meant that Strategy might soon get back to the business of buying Bitcoin.

If history is any guide...

Things get really interesting when you consider the historical evidence. August has historically been a very bad month for Bitcoin. In fact, Bitcoin hasn't had a positive August since 2021.

The last blockbuster August for Bitcoin happened back in 2017, when it soared by 65%. And longtime Bitcoin investors remember exactly what happened that year. Bitcoin went on an epic year-end rally, ending 2017 up a staggering 1,250%.

Of course, there's no guarantee that history will repeat itself. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Admittedly, much of Bitcoin's gains appear to stem from bullish comments made at a single White House event, rather than from any fundamental change to the Bitcoin investment thesis.

Still, there's reason to hope that Bitcoin has finally bottomed. Bitcoin has always been a highly cyclical, highly volatile asset. If history is any guide, this year could see the coiled spring finally unwind, sending Bitcoin much higher.

Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.