Nvidia Stock Price Forecast: Seven-Day Drop Ahead of Earnings, Can $200 Support Hold?

TradingKey - Nvidia Suffers 7-Day Losing Streak Ahead of Earnings Release; $200 Psychological Level Faces Key Test

On August 25 Eastern Time, Nvidia (NVDA) stock rebounded after dropping nearly 3%, rising 0.4% in overnight trading to temporarily trade at $209.41. Experiencing a technical pullback ahead of its earnings release, Nvidia has declined for seven consecutive days, drawing intense market focus on whether the key $200 psychological level can hold.

Nvidia stock price chart, Source: TradingView

After market close this Wednesday (August 26), Nvidia will release its Q2 FY2027 financial results. Consensus revenue expectations stand at around $91.9 billion, slightly above the top end of Nvidia's prior official guidance of $91.0 billion; adjusted EPS is expected to grow 99% year-over-year to $2.08–$2.09, while the market is closely watching whether next-quarter revenue guidance can break through $105.0 billion.

If Nvidia's reported financial results merely meet market expectations, it will not be enough to drive the stock price up and could even trigger profit-taking selling pressure. According to options market pricing, Nvidia's implied volatility post-earnings is around 5%, which translates to a single-day swing of $10 to $11 based on the current share price, potentially dropping to or even below $200.

In a bearish scenario where revenue and profit miss expectations—especially if guidance falls below expectations—Nvidia's stock is unlikely to hold the $200 level corresponding to the middle band, with a high probability of sliding to test $190, the lower boundary of the descending channel formed over the past four months.

If Nvidia's revenue, profit, gross margin, and other financial metrics beat expectations across the board and next-quarter guidance is significantly revised upward, the stock could launch a strong rally, even challenging its previous record high of $235. However, while this is one key scenario that could drive stock gains, the likelihood of it occurring is low.