TradingKey Daily Market Briefing: US-Iran Ceasefire Expectations Rise, Crude Oil Drops Below $100. US Stocks Achieve Second Straight Gain

TradingKey - On April 1, Eastern Time, U.S. stocks rose for a second consecutive trading session, bolstered by easing concerns over the war in Iran and declining oil prices. The S&P 500 rose 0.72% to 6,575.32, the Nasdaq increased 1.16% to 21,840.95, and the Dow Jones added 0.48% to 46,565.74.

During the session, Brent crude prices briefly dipped below $100 before closing down nearly 15% at $101. The decline in oil prices and the rally in U.S. stocks were primarily driven by market optimism that the war might end soon. Additionally, gold rebounded by approximately 2%, rising for four consecutive sessions and nearing $4,800 at one point during the day.

However, the S&P 500 remains down 4% year-to-date. Considering that energy prices may stay elevated after the war ends—driving up inflation and weighing on stock prices—investors must be prepared for potential market volatility, maintain portfolio diversification, and stay focused on long-term investment goals.

In terms of specific sectors, the semiconductor sector maintained its strong momentum, with Micron (MU) shares surging to close up 8.94%. Intel (INTC) announced it would buy back its stake in an Irish chip factory, with its stock closing up 8.84%.

Sentiment in travel stocks recovered slightly, with American Airlines (AAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) both rising. In the energy sector, companies including Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Chevron (CVX) , both closed lower, dragged down by falling oil prices, though they remain significantly higher year-to-date.

Nike (NKE) fell more than 15% following the release of its third-quarter earnings report, while Eli Lilly (LLY) rose after its new weight-loss drug received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Market Headlines

Trump says Iran has requested a ceasefire; the U.S. requires Hormuz to be open before considering it; Iran denies. Trump stated that the president of Iran's new regime is more rational than his predecessor and has requested a ceasefire from the U.S., but the U.S. will not consider it until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and unobstructed; until then, it will bomb Iran into rubble. Iran reiterated it will use the blockade of the strait as a countermeasure, asserting the strait is under its absolute control and will not be reopened to its enemies based on the U.S. president's showmanship.

Reports indicate that the U.S. deployment of A-10 attack aircraft in the Middle East has doubled; U.S. stocks narrow gains. Reports state the U.S. Air Force is sending 18 A-10 attack aircraft to the Middle East, aiming to strengthen close air support and "low-intensity warfare" capabilities; the doubling of this deployment signifies a significant enhancement of the U.S. military's "sustained suppression" mission in the Gulf. In late trading, U.S. stocks narrowed their gains.

Sources say the UAE is prepared to help the U.S. use force to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran launched over 2,500 missiles and drones at Dubai, dealing a heavy blow to its tourism, shipping, and real estate core. The UAE is now actively lobbying the Security Council to authorize the use of force to open the strait and seeking to form an international coalition. However, a slight misstep could lead to an intractable regional war.

The U.S. Treasury expects oil prices to remain above $100 for the long term and does not rule out a rise to $200. The government is discussing unconventional measures such as using emergency powers and limiting crude oil exports to curb oil prices. However, analysts warn that the actual shockwave from the supply "window" will hit the U.S. in about two weeks, with prices for diesel and jet fuel facing jumps, significantly increasing the burden on consumers.

"ADP jobs data" significantly beat expectations, with U.S. private sector employment increasing by 62,000 in March and wages rising. U.S. private sector employment rose by 62,000 in March, higher than the median forecast of 40,000 by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and comparable to last month's 63,000. Annual pay growth for job stayers remained at 4.5% for the third consecutive month, while pay growth for job changers rose by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month to 6.6%.

OpenAI shares are seeing no takers in the secondary market, while Anthropic shares are in high demand. The founder of Next Round Capital stated that in recent weeks, about six institutional investors have sought to sell approximately $600 million worth of OpenAI stock, but there are currently no takers. Market bids now value OpenAI at approximately $765 billion, a discount of about 10% from its previous $850 billion valuation, while Anthropic is being valued at approximately $600 billion, over 50% higher than its last funding round. OpenAI stated it neither recognizes nor participates in these transactions.

Sources say SpaceX has secretly filed for a U.S. IPO. According to media reports citing people familiar with the matter, SpaceX has secretly submitted an application for an initial public offering (IPO); the company has filed a draft IPO registration with the SEC and requested anonymity. SpaceX will arrange roadshows for company executives this month and has invited Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley to serve as lead underwriters, with additional banks also participating.

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