Nasdaq New Rules Effective May 1. What Is the Impact of ‘Fast-Track Entry’ on SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic?

TradingKey - Nasdaq introduces new rules, paving the way for IPOs of unicorns such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, though retail investors should be wary of potential risks.

According to a Cointelegraph report on March 31, Nasdaq announced two new rules: first, the removal of the 10% minimum public float threshold, and second, the addition of a "fast-track" rule allowing mega-cap IPO companies to join the Nasdaq 100 Index within approximately 15 trading days. Both will take effect on May 1 this year.

The aforementioned mega-cap threshold is approximately $100 billion. IPO candidates meeting this criteria this year include SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, with latest valuations at $1.75 trillion, $850 billion, and $380 billion, respectively. Nasdaq's new rules are widely seen as rolling out the red carpet for the upcoming "super unicorn IPO wave." However, what impact will this move have on them?

Under previous Nasdaq rules, even if market cap requirements were met, new companies had to wait at least a three-month observation period and typically until the annual rebalancing in December to be included in the index. Under the new rules, if these three companies rank among the top 40 of the Nasdaq 100 by market cap on their 7th trading day—a threshold of approximately $100 billion—they can be included after 15 trading days. This implies they will receive massive liquidity support, as trillions of dollars in passive funds tracking the NDX (such as QQQ) would be required to buy in "mechanically."

Furthermore, the old rules stipulated that large companies might be ineligible for index inclusion if their public float at IPO was below 10%. Now, the new rules have abolished the 10% minimum float requirement. This means companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, which might release only a small portion of shares to maintain control, can still enter the index. The advantage is creating a "high valuation, low float" profile, which could trigger a surge in stock prices during the early stages of listing due to the influx of passive buying.

It is evident that Nasdaq's new rules are changing the underlying logic of how these unicorns interact with capital markets, but they may also impose liquidity pressure on the market. Currently, the combined valuation of these three companies is nearly $3 trillion. If they list around the same time and are "fast-tracked" into the index, it could place extreme pressure on existing market liquidity. Such a massive wave could subject otherwise stable mid-cap constituents to severe volatility.

"Fast-track index inclusion" means that post-IPO stock prices will be supported by passive funds and remain relatively stable, which benefits early investors (VCs) and employees looking to exit their holdings. However, passive investors are likely to buy in at high valuations. It should also be noted that the previous three-month observation period helped the market digest IPO premiums and filter out early speculative bubbles, whereas the new rule shortens this to 15 days, resulting in a lack of price discovery.