Prediction: 2 Things That Will Happen to Alibaba in 2026

Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) has spent the past few years navigating regulatory pressure, intense competition, and shifting investor sentiment. But as the company enters 2026, the picture is becoming clearer. The business is stabilizing in some areas while accelerating rapidly in others.

Based on recent earnings and industry trends, two developments are likely to define Alibaba's story in 2026.

Image source: Getty Images.

1. E-commerce growth will remain modest, and margins may stay under pressure

Alibaba's core e-commerce platforms, Taobao and Tmall, are no longer the hypergrowth engines they once were. But they remain the company's foundation, generating the bulk of revenue and user engagement.

Recent results suggest the segment is stabilizing. In the quarter ending in December 31, 2025, Alibaba reported China commerce revenue growth of 6% year over year, driven mainly by the rapid expansion of quick commerce.

While the recent performance has improved compared to the last two years, investors should note that competition across China's e-commerce landscape remains fierce. Platforms such as Pinduoduo and Douyin continue to challenge traditional marketplaces with low-price strategies and short-video commerce experiences.

To defend its ecosystem, Alibaba has been investing heavily in improving customer mindshare through a stronger value proposition, enhanced services, and instant commerce. These initiatives help maintain user engagement but come at a cost. The company's earnings have come under pressure due to higher spending on quick commerce, user experience and technology.

Given these dynamics, a realistic scenario for 2026 is mid-to-high-single-digit growth in the e-commerce segment and continued margin pressure as Alibaba balances market share with profitability.

2. AI will drive rapid expansion in Alibaba's cloud business

While e-commerce stabilizes, a different growth story is unfolding within Alibaba's cloud division. Artificial intelligence (AI) is dramatically increasing the demand for computing infrastructure, and cloud providers are emerging as key beneficiaries of that trend. As a leading AI cloud computing player in China with more than 35% market share, Alibaba Cloud is already seeing the impact.

In the quarter ending in December 2025, the company reported cloud revenue growth of 36% year over year, driven largely by demand for AI-related services.

Even more telling, Alibaba disclosed that AI-related workloads have been growing at triple-digit rates for ten quarters! This shift is significant because AI applications require far more computing power than traditional cloud workloads. That dynamic is set to increase revenue per customer and strengthen the long-term economics of cloud platforms.

Alibaba has been investing aggressively to capture this opportunity, expanding data center capacity and developing its Qwen family of large language models, which enterprises can deploy through Alibaba Cloud.

With such a strong tailwind behind it, Alibaba Cloud is well positioned to deliver another year of high-double-digit growth in 2026.

What does it mean for investors?

Alibaba's next chapter may look very different from its past. E-commerce is likely to remain stable but slower-growing, while cloud and AI increasingly drive the company's expansion.

For investors, that transition matters. Alibaba is gradually shifting from a pure e-commerce story to a broader technology platform built around cloud infrastructure and artificial intelligence.

If the two predictions above materialise, 2026 could further cement that transformation.

Lawrence Nga has positions in Alibaba Group and PDD Holdings. The Motley Fool recommends Alibaba Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.