Vanguard Owns 36 Million Shares of Rigetti Computing. Here's Why That $577 Million Position Doesn't Mean What You Think It Does.

If you follow quantum computing stocks, you've probably seen some version of this headline: "Wall Street is loading up on Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI)." The article in question probably pointed to 13F filings showing that leading money managers like Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street hold tens of millions of shares of the pure play.

At first glance, that might look like a massive endorsement. Vanguard, the largest asset manager on the planet, has a position in Rigetti worth roughly $577 million. That must mean something, right?

Active vs. passive

In fact, though, Vanguard's large position in Rigetti has nothing to do with the convictions of its fund managers. It exists because the stock is a component of broad indexes like the Russell 2000. Vanguard offers numerous passively managed funds -- like the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund -- that track a specific index. That means holding every stock in that benchmark index in the same proportion -- or weighting -- as the index does.

When Rigetti's stock price surged by over 1,700% in 2025, its weighting in these indexes increased, and the value of Vanguard's stake grew proportionally, as did its weight in those funds' portfolios.

The same is true of BlackRock, State Street, and Geode Capital, and most of the largest institutional holders of Rigetti.

What about the active investors?

There are exceptions, however. Some active hedge funds like D.E. Shaw also hold sizable positions in Rigetti.

But those positions don't amount to much of an endorsement either. D.E. Shaw is a quant fund: It uses algorithms to trade on momentum and other factors that have little to do with anyone's long-term convictions about a stock or beliefs in a company's ability to execute on its vision.

Image source: Getty Images.

The sorts of funds that buy stocks with the intention of holding them for the medium to long term have tiny Rigetti positions -- less than 0.01% of their portfolios -- that are closer to rounding errors.

The bottom line

Institutional ownership data is one of the most widely misunderstood signals in retail investing. A name like Vanguard on a shareholder list feels like validation, but it really isn't. It is a mechanical consequence of index inclusion, not a reflection of "smart money" loving Rigetti.

So, should you buy Rigetti stock? I wouldn't unless you're allocating funds that you're comfortable losing. I think the road toward potential success for Rigetti and other quantum computing pure plays will be long -- much longer than many of the industry's bulls hope. If I'm right, the risks could be existential for Rigetti and many of its peers.

Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends BlackRock. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.