Rigetti has a $5.3 billion market cap on just $7.5 million in revenue, while D-Wave is valued at over $7.2 billion despite only $24.1 million in sales.
Neither Rigetti nor D-Wave has a clear path to profitability, making their sky-high valuations difficult to justify.
Quantum computing was one of the hottest investing themes of 2025. But hot themes cool off, especially when promises outpace reality.
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) and D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) are two stocks that rewarded investors with incredible returns, but even after their recent retreat from their October highs, I think they have a lot further to fall.
Even now, with Rigetti shares trading at $16 and D-Wave at $20, their valuations are disconnected from reality and any business fundamentals, and that could soon be a serious problem for investors.
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Rigetti posted $7.5 million in revenue over the last 12 months. Its market capitalization is over $5.3 billion. D-Wave's valuation may be slightly better, but not by much. The company delivered $24.1 million in sales over the last 12 months, and its market cap is north of $7.2 billion.
Both companies are deeply unprofitable and burning cash every quarter, and the only path to profitability hinges on a massive leap forward in an incredible experimental technology.
Image source: Getty Images.
The bull case comes down to delivering useful quantum computing. But they'll need to do so in a reasonable time frame. Despite what many hope, there's plenty of reason to believe viable quantum computing could be a decade or more away. I don't think 2026 will be kind to either stock. Unless you have a long investing horizon, now is probably a good time to sell, before these stocks' prices fall further.
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Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.