Prediction: Filings in February Will Show Warren Buffett Made 1 Investment for the Third and Final Time in His Tenure at Berkshire Hathaway

Legendary investor Warren Buffett stepped down as chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) (NYSE: BRK.B) as of Jan. 1, as planned. And with 13-F filings for the fourth quarter of 2025 due on Feb. 14, 45 days after the end of the calendar quarter, I predict they will reveal that Buffett bought vast quantities of silver in the last days of his tenure.

Of course, this is speculation, and only on Feb. 14 will we know for sure. But the circumstances around today's silver rally are strikingly similar to Buffett's biggest silver purchase in his long investment career.

Buffett himself has explained how he analyzes the value of a non-yielding asset like silver. When you see his years-old explanation, I think you'll also suspect he views silver as a strong buy.

Buffett's precious metals prophecy came true last year

At a conference for Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in the late 1990s, Buffett was asked about Berkshire's then-recent purchase of $910 million worth of silver.

Buffett replied that he had no inside knowledge about new uses of silver, or special knowledge of the white metal -- just basic math. He noted that the aggregate demand for silver by jewelers and industrial users was approximately 800 million ounces per year, but only 500 million ounces were being produced, and another 150 million ounces were reclaimed annually. "So, there's been a gap in recent years, of perhaps 150 million ounces ... which has been filled by an inventory of bullion above ground."

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Buffett predicted that as supply failed to keep up with demand, the above-ground inventories would be depleted until "a new equilibrium" was established between supply, price, and demand. Because supply of a byproduct metal isn't very responsive to increased demand, Buffett didn't see supply growing dramatically. Nor did he see demand slowing, as the industrial uses for silver, the most conductive metal on the periodic table, made it highly sought-after.

With a supply-and-demand reset ruled out, a surge in price remained the most likely possibility for silver. Sure enough, Buffett's move made a $97 million profit for Berkshire Hathaway when he unloaded his 111 million ounces years later.

That purchase was the second time that Buffett bought silver -- the first move on the precious metal was in the 1960s, when he bought silver as a way to play its demonetization by the federal government.

Why history may rhyme in 2026

In 2026, it's much the same story. We don't have official numbers for the amount of silver mined and consumed in 2025 yet. But the forecasts for 2025 were 835 million ounces in new supply, compared to 1.15 billion ounces in total demand. That would continue a four-year streak of the world consuming far more silver than it produces, with the annual deficits ranging from 79 million to 249 million ounces.

Meanwhile, supply hasn't responded to silver's 144% run in 2025. According to The Silver Institute, 835 million ounces of silver are forecast to have been produced last year, a less than 2% increase from 2024's production.

In short, Buffett's decades-old observation on the silver market held true in 2025. Naturally, he could not have failed to notice the old supply/demand/price imbalance he so successfully exploited in the 1990s reassert itself.

Whether he acted on it or not is another question. But keep in mind that Buffett has been a net seller of stocks for three years now. Meanwhile, Berkshire sits on a record $381.7 billion cash pile. As Buffett considered his legacy on the way out the door, I suspect that the temptation to take a layup on such a straightforward opportunity will prove to have been too great to pass up.

William Dahl has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.