Is TMC The Metals Company Stock a Millionaire Maker?

Investors like to believe they are getting in on the ground floor of a huge new development -- something that will make them millionaires when the investment plays out. It is an enticing dream, but one that only rarely comes true. Which is why you need to tread with caution if you believe TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) is going to make you a millionaire. Here's what you need to consider before buying this exciting story stock.

The real unexplored frontier

Popular science fiction shows tell us that space is the final frontier. But in many ways, there is still one frontier we know very little about on our own planet -- the depths of our oceans. The Metals Company aims to master that frontier by establishing a deep-sea mining business. The opportunity is huge, according to management.

Image source: Getty Images.

In the company's third-quarter 2025 business update, the company describes itself as "unlocking the world's largest undeveloped resource of metals for energy, defense, manufacturing and infrastructure." That's a pretty bold claim but not actually an outlandish one. The company highlights that the United States and Japan are both working to explore similar opportunities, with a test project set to begin in 2026 and 2027. Mining the seabed is a very real goal. The Metals Company itself believes its commercial projects possess 51 metric tons of probable reserves. Production is currently projected to start at the end of 2027.

If you are looking to get in on the ground floor of something new and exciting, The Metals Company is going to be attractive to you. But that's "the story," and it is meant to get investors excited about the future. What's the reality of the business right now?

There is a lot of spending ahead

First, deep-sea mining is not a new idea. It has been tried before, and it wasn't economically feasible. The Metals Company has been working to update the techniques used in an attempt to change the viability of deep-sea mining. It believes that this time will be different, but there's no real way to know if it has succeeded until the mining process has been put into full-scale production. Simply put, if management is overselling its mining prospects, you probably won't know until it is too late.

Then there's the income statement. The Metals Company is, basically, just a money-losing start-up. To be fair, it isn't unusual for start-ups to lose money. However, significant capital investment is required as the business builds out its mining operations. Mining above the water is capital intensive; mining below the water is likely to be more so, particularly since it really hasn't been done in any meaningful way just yet.

In other words, the red ink is going to keep flowing through at least the end of 2027 (projected first production), if not longer. It isn't unusual for start-ups to overpromise and underdeliver. Nor is it unusual for large mining projects to encounter issues that delay the opening of a new mine or increase the operating costs of that mine once it starts producing.

Then there's the balance sheet. In fact, the very first thing discussed in the company's Q3 2025 business update was its liquidity. That's something a business does if investors are concerned that it lacks the financial capacity to support its business model. In this case, the worry is likely that The Metals Company will have to sell huge amounts of stock, diluting current shareholders, in order to finance its business. Management says it doesn't need more cash, at least not right now, but 2027 is still a long way away.

A good idea that you can probably wait on

Buying The Metals Company today will get you in early on what sounds like a very good idea. That's likely to be suitable only for the most aggressive growth investors. The company is still in the early stages of its development in a capital-intensive industry, operating in a new frontier within that sector. Meanwhile, it is losing money with little prospect of that changing in the near term.

Most investors will probably be better off watching from the sidelines until a few more business milestones have been reached. It might even make sense for more conservative types to wait until production has at least started in some capacity. That's not a knock against the company, which is doing something truly innovative. It's simply a realistic assessment of the risk-reward profile of the investment. You may miss out on some gains if you wait, but you could also be saving yourself from losses if things don't work out as well as management hopes.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.