China: Growth outlook stays resilient – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding expect China’s Q1 2026 GDP growth to have accelerated to 4.8% year-on-year, supported by robust exports and recovering investment. They see resilient industrial production and positive fixed asset investment, while property investment likely declined. CPI inflation is projected to ease, PPI to turn positive, and credit growth to slow on weak household loan demand.

Q1 growth supported by exports and investment

"Activity likely accelerated in Q1 from Q4-2025 levels partly on higher global demand for AI-related products, boosting production and exports."

"We estimate Q1 growth at 4.8% y/y, well within the official 2026 target range of 4.5-5.0%."

"Trade growth likely normalised in March but stayed robust, partly on solid IC demand."

"We think the trade surplus widened, contributing positively to Q1 growth."

"Resilient exports and the investment rebound likely supported industrial production (IP)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)