TTF gas: LNG shock ends surplus era – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Florence Schmit and Joe DeLaura argue the Ras Laffan strike and extended Hormuz closure have effectively ended the LNG glut, forcing a sharp repricing of TTF gas. They now see Q2 2026 TTF at €61/MWh, with full-year 2026 around €50/MWh and 2027 at €42/MWh, as European buyers compete with Asia for constrained cargoes.

European benchmark moves into deficit

"This latest escalation in the Gulf has forced a significant reassessment of the near-term LNG balance and our forecast trajectory. When we last revised our outlook, we had already priced in a closure of the Strait of Hormuz through early April, as Iran had effectively halted maritime traffic after multiple strikes on merchant vessels and coastal infrastructure, reducing tanker movements to near zero and disrupting roughly one-fifth of global LNG flows."

"The situation has since deteriorated materially and as a result, we must raise our forecast again to reflect this large, multi-year capacity loss. In addition, we now expect the Strait of Hormuz to remain effectively closed until late-April, with LNG supply curtailments lasting significantly longer."

"As a result, we now expect total available LNG supply in 2026 to be around 443 million tons—almost unchanged from 2025 levels of 442 million tons. New U.S. LNG additions this year will no longer offset outages across the Middle East and North Africa (with Egypt remaining a net importer through 2026). Even under assumptions of modest LNG demand growth, the market moves into deficit."

"With a potential late-April Hormuz reopening, a restoration of energy flows is unlikely before July or August given the time it needs to backfill supply and return production. A return to pre-war flows has been rendered impossible after the attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure."

"We are raising our Q2 TTF gas forecast to €61/MWh, with Q3-Q4 also higher at €50/MWh and €48/MWh. Given the current supply shortfall and the expected easing of restrictions later in the year, we continue to expect a significant Q2 price premium over later quarters. With both Asia and Europe competing for limited cargoes, the region that moves first will dictate the other’s response."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)