Your Stocks Could Feel the Fed's Rate Hike Next, Jim Cramer Warns
Jim Cramer said the impact of higher interest rates is his big fear for the stock market right now. The Mad Money host raised the concern about 2 weeks after the Federal Reserve resumed hiking.
His warning came during a Thursday review of the third quarter, when software stocks rebounded and chip names cooled. He called software’s comeback the defining stock market story of that quarter.
“My big fear right now is the impact of higher interest rates on the stock market,” Cramer said.
The Fed Turned the Dial Back Up
The Federal Reserve raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% on September 16. The decision marked its first increase since 2023.
The Fed said the move supports a timelier return to its 2% inflation goal. US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation cooled to 3.4% in August, still well above that target.
Fed projections also showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more hike this year. J.P. Morgan sees that move coming in December, though it expects no long tightening cycle.
Futures traders mostly expect a pause on October 28, with CME FedWatch showing 75.1% odds of no change. By the December 9 meeting, however, the odds of a higher target range climb to 79.4%.
Most of that probability, 61.3%, sits on a single quarter-point move to 4% to 4.25%.
Target rate probabilities for the December 9, 2026 Fed meeting as of October 2. Source: CME FedWatch
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Home Depot Shows Where the Pressure Lands
The hike has weighed on rate-sensitive stocks such as Home Depot. Market data shows the retailer down over 6% between September 16 and October 1. Its shares have now lost over 18% since the start of 2026.
Home Depot Stock Performance. Source: TradingView
Borrowing costs have also climbed in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield ended October 1 near 5.24%, up from roughly 4.16% at the start of 2026. Ex-Dallas Fed chief Robert Kaplan says traders price a premium tied to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh into yields.
Those pressures have not yet dragged down the broader market, with the S&P 500 up about 12% in 2026. Cramer said the coming earnings season should give a clearer read on how costlier borrowing is affecting companies.
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